Climate Change and Armed Groups: A SCORE Analysis in the Tillaberi Region in Niger

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. There is a Climate Security Nexus at work in the Tillaberi region meaning that climate-related and security-related dynamics are correlated and reinforce each other. Therefore, even though climate change could not be identified as direct driver of recruitment, it operates as a catalyst, exacerbating conditions that heighten the susceptibility of individuals to join such groups. It’s crucial to shift the perspective from viewing climate change as a distant spectre to recognizing it as an active agent shaping pathways to vulnerability.

2. Moreover, Climate change repercussions do not occur arbitrarily; they are more pronounced in areas where people already contend with structural hardships. Climate Change is an aggravating factor as it intensifies the vulnerability of individuals who are already fragile and besieged by disruptive dynamics. Notably, the severity of climate shocks in these areas not only compounds existing struggles but also presents an alarming opportunity for non-state armed groups to exploit the void left by weakened governance.

3. Even though the recruitment patterns are highly contextual and variate according to the socioecological situation of the community, it is important to consider the crucial role of Natural Resources Management as it is strongly correlated with dynamics related to the social fabric. Results highlight the fact that socially accepted Natural Resources regulations cannot be sustainable in the absence of strong social bonds, just as social cohesion cannot remain stable when natural resources regulatory mechanisms are considered unfair by some parts of the population.

4. Violent tendencies and the urge to possess weapons are two key predictors of vulnerability to recruitment. These two types of reactions seem to stem from despair and the absence of viable means to cope with various adversities, they should be considered through a lens which considers the Institutional Deficits that undermine Human Security in the region.

5. The environmental degradations triggered by the phenomenon can worsen existing conflicts and contribute to the emergence of new ones. The research aims to provide a better understanding of climate change’s impact on social cohesion, human security, and individual violent tendencies. For those reasons, DDR interventions, in their effort to reduce conflictual dynamics, should pay particular attention to the feedback loops and tipping points generated by climate change.

6. The results suggest the need for a transversal and multidisciplinary approach that considers climatic stressors, societal dynamics, and individual psychological tendencies together. In this perspective, the DDR interventions should be framed through an integrated approach covering Mental Health and Psychosocial Support (MHPSS), peacebuilding, and livelihood development. The results of the research encourage the development of interconnected and cross-cutting interventions to strengthen and self-sustain Constructive Citizenship, Social Connectedness & Resilient Livelihoods.