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Central America Regional Supply and Market Outlook Update (November 12, 2021)

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Situation Report
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  • This report summarizes the supply and market outlook for white maize, black and red dry beans, and milled rice in Central America during the 2021/22 marketing year (MY), spanning from August 2021 to July 2022. For the purposes of this report, Central America refers to Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Mexico and Costa Rica are included because of their role in regional supply and trade.

  • Preliminary estimates suggest that aggregate white maize and dry bean production for MY 2021/22 is expected to be above the MY 2020/21 and five-year average levels due to favorable agroclimatic conditions for the primera season in El Salvador and Guatemala, and government incentives to increase staple grain production in Honduras. Rice production will be below MY 2020/2021 and close to average levels (Figure 1).

  • Above-average maize and beans surpluses are expected across the region (Figure 2) associated with higher maize and beans production in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. The rice deficit will be close to average. Imports from regional and well supplied international markets (Annex 5) will fill domestic consumption gaps.

  • Progressive economic recovery, higher fuel and transportation costs, and irregular rainfall in focalized areas of Honduras and Nicaragua influenced price increases during MY 2020/21. As of September 2021, maize and beans prices remain generally above average (Figure 4). Above-average maize and beans prices are expected through the end of the MY 2021/22. Rice prices are likely to remain steady (Figure 9 to Figure 11).

  • International import levels and prices, regional trade flows, government policies, and the performance of upcoming harvests will be important to monitor in 2022. Climate conditions ahead of the upcoming postrera and apante/postrera tardía seasons should be also closely monitored.