Caribbean: Tropical Storm Nate Flash Update No.1 05 October, 2017 – 16:00 (GMT-5)
Tropical Storm Nate formed on the morning of Thursday 5 October in the southwestern Caribbean. Early forecast models show that it is on track to make landfall in the central US Gulf Coast by the weekend, likely as a hurricane according to the National Hurricane Center.
At 11:00 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located inland over northeastern Nicaragua. TS Nate is moving northwest at approximately 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest at a faster forward speed is expected for late Thursday 5 October, with that motion continuing through the night of Friday 6 October. On the forecast track, the center of Nate is expected to move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras on Thursday 5 October and then over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late in the night of 5 October through Friday 6 October. The center is then expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late 6 October.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today while the center is over land. Strengthening is likely once the center moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly over water to the east of the center.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible in several Central American nations, with extreme rainfall totals of 15 to 20 inches possible in Nicaragua and up to 8 inches predicted for Honduras. After crossing over Central America, Nate is expected to move back into the warm waters of the Caribbean where the impact of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose, and Maria are still present.
Costa Rica has reported two deaths and 5,000 people evacuated, as well many roads blocked by debris and has declared a red alert for the majority of the country following more than 1,000 incident reports to emergency lines of flooding, landslides and strong winds. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Panama have all reported effects of Tropical Storm Nate and are working through their national Civil Protection systems in issuing local alerts and attending to reported incidents of flooding and strong winds.
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