Nepal

Field Bulletin - Issue 33, January 2012 - 2012: Potential risks to peace and development from the field

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Overview

Though examining many dynamics linked to the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), these updates are not about ‘tracking the peace process’ as such. Instead, they are an attempt to ensure that development partners can keep abreast of the changing context and dynamics in Nepal’s current transition that present potential risks to the wider peace and development landscape from a field perspective.

Based on this ongoing analysis, this Field Bulletin attempts to look ahead and identify some of the key risks from the field to the wider peace and development landscape for 2012.

Despite the Seven-Point Agreement signed between the major parties on 1 November 2011 , two critical sticking points remain in the immediate CPA implementation process. Firstly, the negotiations for drafting and approving a new constitution are principally hung-up on agreement over the form of government and the details of federal restructuring.

Major breakthroughs will need to be achieved in the coming weeks in order to meet the 28 May deadline, which was re-enforced by a Supreme Court ruling. Secondly, the parties are close but have not come to final agreement on the integration, voluntary retirement and rehabilitation of verified Maoist army personnel.

Both issues involve complex negotiations between the parties, but are also highly inter-linked to one another, to the resolution of other ‘residual’ political issues and to ever-shifting inter- and intraparty political dynamics.