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Crop Situation Update- A joint assessment of the 2013 winter crops including comprehensive data on the 2012/13 overall crop production

Situation Report
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HIGHLIGHTS

2012/13 WINTER CROP SITUATION

  • The production of wheat and barley is estimated at 1.9 million mt, and 37 thousand mt respectively. This is an increase in production of 2 percent and 6 percent respectively compared to 2011/12 winter season.The Central Development Region is the largest wheat producing region with an output of 631 thousand mt, up by 5 percent compared to 2011/12.
  • Increase in winter crop production is attributed to the timely and adequate precipitation (rainfall/snowfall), and increased use of agricultural inputs. 2012/13

NATIONAL PRODUCTION

  • Despite a good winter crop harvest, the 2012/13 national cereal crop production decreased substantially from 9.45 million mt of last year to 8.74 million mt this year—a drop of 7.6 percent.
  • Due to late and erratic rainfall during the monsoon, the production of paddy, maize, and millet decreased to 4.5 million mt, 2.0 million mt, and 0.30 million mt, respectively. A decrease in production by 11.3 percent, 8.3 percent, and 3 percent respectively compared to 2011/12.
    Buckwheat marginally increased by 0.3 percent to 10,056 mt.
  • The overall national cereal balance remains positive with a surplus of 408.4 thousand mt (7.8 percent) of edible food as opposed to a surplus of 886.3 thousand mt (17.2 percent) last year.
  • Despite a surplus cereal food balance at national level, as many as 33 districts are food deficit; many of them are in the Mid- and Far-Western Hill and Mountain districts.
  • During the period July 2012-March 2013, the share of cereal import was 3.25 percent (worth NPR 14 billion) as compared to 2.27 percent for the same period last year.
  • Year-on-year Wholesale Price Index (WPI) marginally increased by 8.1 percent in May 2013 compared to 8.0 percent in the same period last year. However, the WPI of the cereal grains, increased by 9.4 percent compared to a decline of 0.2 percent over the same period last year.
  • Global cereal production is estimated at 2,708 million mt, an increase of 6 percent compared to last year. In India, total grain output is estimated at 255.36 million mt, which includes 104.22 million mt of rice, 93.62 million mt of wheat, and 21.82 million mt of maize.

SUMMER CROP OUTLOOK

  • The overall outlook for the 2013/14 summer crops remains positive. Active pre-monsoon and the timely arrival of the monsoon rains are expected to results in good summer crop yields for maize, paddy, and millet.

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