• Nauru is warming and is expected to warm throughout the 21st century. Future rates of warming are clouded by current models’ inability to simulate very localized changes but, warming is likely to be in the range of 0.9°C–3.0°C depending on the 21st century rate of global emissions.
• Natural variability between years, even decades, ensure short- and medium-term rainfall changes are difficult to detect and project into the future. Further research is urgently required to develop models better suited to modelling the future climate of Pacific Islands.
• The sea-level near Nauru has been rising at a faster rate than the global average, and is projected to increase throughout the 21st century. While Nauru has higher elevation than some Pacific Island nations, long-term sea-level rise threatens coastal livelihoods and infrastructure.
• Coral bleaching, as a result of climate change, is a significant risk to the country’s ecology and economy and is part of a global picture of coral loss.
• A realignment of the nation’s fisheries is likely, near-shore fisheries are likely to decline, while deep sea fisheries face an uncertain future. Research and risk monitoring are required given Nauru’s economic vulnerability.
• Nauru has an unusual and precarious socioeconomic situation which has led to issues of poverty and poor health. Development issues and other forms of human-driven environmental degradation remain primary drivers of negative social outcomes, but climate change threatens to exacerbate Nauru’s problems.
• Adaptation and disaster risk reduction efforts are hampered by Nauru’s lack of economic independence, and its inaccessible location. Without support, and new approaches, climate change threatens to drive poverty and inequality.