Attachments
TIMELINE
- April 2024: Government of Namibia releases Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment and Analysis Report for drought.
- May 2024: Government develops nationwide drought relief programme.
- May 2024: Government declares drought emergency.
- September 2024: IFRC launches Emergency Appeal for CHF 7 million to support Namibia Red Cross Society (NRCS) to cover 34,000 families; CHF 750.000 DREF allocated.
- October 2024: IFRC Pretoria cluster team deployed to support and strengthen NRCS to implement activities under the Appeal.
DESCRIPTION OF THE EVENT
For the past decade, Namibia has faced a prolonged drought, which has been exacerbated by the el Niño effect. This ongoing drought significantly impacts productivity, availability and access to food, leading to an increase in food insecurity and deterioration of livelihoods for vulnerable populations. Over the past 18 months, rainfall across Namibia has been minimal, with most of the country experiencing below-normal rains. This impacts crop and livestock production, causing price shocks, economic decline and unemployment.
On 22 May 2024, the President declared a state of emergency, and although food distribution is ongoing in all regions, additional resources are needed to reach all affected, as number of food-insecure households continues to increase. Furthermore, estimates indicate that the lack of adequate pasture, and water shortage, have adversely affected livestock production, and animals in the western and eastern parts of the country are in only fair to poor condition.
Severity of humanitarian conditions
According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report, published on 6 September, approximately 1.15 million people in Namibia - nearly 40 per cent of the population - faced severe food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or higher) between July and September 2024. This was in all 14 regions and represents an increase of approximately 800,000 people in food crisis since December 2022. The situation is expected to deteriorate from October 2024 to March 2025 as well, with the onset of the lean season and rising seasonal prices. Projections indicate that 1.26 million people (41 per cent of the population) will be in IPC Phase 3 or higher, with at least 100,000 in IPC Phase 4 (“emergency”). The hardest-hit regions include Khomas, Otjozondjupa, Omusati, Ohangwena, Kunene, Kavango West and Kavango East.
Namibia’s deteriorating food security is mainly driven by dry spells and erratic rainfall. Water availability for crop production, livestock and domestic use is at the lowest level due to these climate shocks. Many households depend on crop and livestock farming, which relies heavily on seasonal rains. Consecutive years of low productivity are leading to a high market price for food commodities too. Moreover, unemployment is persistently high, at about 34 per cent, with many households left without a stable source of income. All of this is resulting in a deterioration of the food security situation for impoverished households, which in some cases can also lead to malnutrition.
Many households, especially those in communal farming areas, have reported depleting their food stocks from the previous season and are now largely reliant on market supplies and drought relief aid. Additionally, livestock production has suffered due to poor pasture conditions and water shortages, leading to fair to poor livestock body conditions, especially in the southern, western and eastern parts of the country.
Malnutrition is a growing concern, with 24 per cent of children under 5 stunted (reduced growth relative to age), 6 per cent experiencing wasting (weighing too little for their height) and 13 per cent underweight. Within the period under review, there have been 1,101 deaths due to malnutrition in all 14 regions.
According to the Crop Prospects, Food Security and Drought Situation Assessment Report, released by the Ministry of Water and Land Resources (MAWLR) in March 2024, crop production was expected to decline by 53 per cent. Many communal crop-producing regions also had below-average harvests due to erratic rainfall and extended severe dry spells that occurred in early January and throughout much of February and March 2024. Approximately 54 per cent of smallholder farmers affected by the prolonged drought are women who live in communal areas, where access to land and water is already challenging. And early 2025 will see the possible onset of la Niña, coinciding with the preparation of the fields. La Niña is projected to bring above-average rainfall, which could boost crop yields, and start reversing the food insecurity situation. To realize that potential, it’s important to get seeds and farming inputs to farmers as early as possible.
On the other hand, La Niña could also bring floods in some flood-prone areas, and proliferation of pests is likely. Working with communities ahead of time and taking early action could help mitigate the negative impact of these events.
On livestock pasture availability, most regions of the country are experiencing poor grazing conditions due to insufficient rainfall and prolonged dry spells. This strains fodder supply, driving up demand for pastures and increasing fodder and hay prices. As a result, livestock body conditions are deteriorating, with many animals facing starvation, potentially leading to more deaths. Wildfires could further reduce pasture availability if the dry conditions persist. In a context where the livestock sector contributes to 10 per cent of GDP and income for 70 per cent of the rural population, this situation has had a major impact on household income. However, projections for an improved, above-average rainfall season in early 2025 could start reversing the situation. In the meantime, assistance to livestock herders is necessary in the form of fodder and water provision, and other livestock marketing incentives could make a difference.
On water access, water availability has significantly declined, with dam levels dropping by 14.7 per cent compared to the previous year. Water quality is also deteriorating due to drying catchments. In communal areas, damaged boreholes and theft of pumps are worsening the situation, especially in the northern regions. This is likely to increase water prices in urban and peri-urban areas. Additionally, potential conflicts over water usage for livestock in communal regions may arise due to mismanagement of funds from pump usage.
On markets, prices for staple crops like maize and millet are expected to continue to rise, further aggravated by weak purchasing power. This will only be reversed in the second half of 2025, if positive production resumes. Until then, continued support through the provision of humanitarian assistance and social safety nets will be lifesaving/life-sustaining for many households.
On inflation, due to ongoing shortages in the region, supply scarcities are anticipated from South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Additionally, rising fuel costs are expected to drive up transportation expenses, which will in turn increase the cost of food and services.
For health and nutrition, the reported crop failure, which has impacted food security, has also reduced food diversification both in markets and at the household level. As a result, micronutrient deficiencies are expected to emerge, particularly affecting children.
Socio-economic factors, such as poverty, inequality, urbanization (informal housing and settlements) and limited access to markets, will continue to grow. Approximately 43 per cent of Namibians live below the national poverty line, with the incidence of poverty being higher in rural areas (58 per cent) compared to urban areas (25 per cent). This could hinder people’s ability to cope with and recover from shocks like floods or livestock loss.
Social tension is growing too, and drought significantly impacts household dynamics, particularly in households, as reduced food availability can lead to stress and tension. There may be conflict over resource allocation and financial strains due to rising food prices and reliance on aid. Overall, the effects of drought on food availability can strain families, emphasizing the importance of ef fective communication and support during challenging times.