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Overview
During the current period of analysis, from July to September 2024, 1.15 million people in Namibia (38 percent of the analysed population) face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) and require urgent action to reduce food gaps and protect livelihoods; all the 14 areas of analysis are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). This represents an improvement compared to what was projected in the last July 2023 analysis, where 1.44 million people (48 percent) were expected to face high levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) for the same period (July-September 2024). While the main assumption on the impact of El Nino was adjusted, the deterioration of the food security situation is still linked to the negative impact of El Nino on crop and livestock production, price shocks, economic decline and unemployment.
In the first projection period (October 2024 – March 2025), the food security situation is expected to worsen due to the start of the lean season, and seasonal price increases, where 1.26 million people (41 percent of the analysed population) are expected to be in IPC Phase 3 or above. Most of the areas are likely to remain classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). However, during the second projection period (April – June 2025), it is anticipated that the food security situation will improve in some parts of the country, with Omusati, Oshana, Oshikoto and Otjozondjupa regions expected to move into IPC Phase 2 (Stressed). Despite the other ten regions remaining in IPC Phase 3, it is anticipated that the population in IPC Phase 3 or above will decline from 1.26 million people in the first projection period to 776,000 people. The anticipated La Nina season is likely to improve grazing conditions, livestock prices and crop harvests. The humanitarian measures the government is engaging in, namely social safety nets and humanitarian assistance, have prevented further deterioration and kept most of the population in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), hence a reduced number of the population in Phase 4 (Emergency) is expected during the current and projected periods.