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Overview
Between April and June 2024, an estimated 1.2 million people (40 percent of the analysed population) in Namibia face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) and require urgent action to reduce food gaps and protect livelihoods. These are the most vulnerable groups (unemployed, marginalized communities, those with no national documents to benefit from social safety nets, children under the age of five, pregnant and breastfeeding women and pensioners) in both urban and rural areas. This number has more than doubled from 491,000 people (19 percent of the population analysed) which were projected to be facing acute food insecurity during the period under review in the July 2023 analysis.
The entire country (all 14 regions) is classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and need action for livelihood protection. Namibia’s deteriorating food security is mainly driven by the impact of El Nino on crop and livestock production, climatic shocks, price shocks, economic decline and unemployment.
The majority of households depend on crop and livestock farming which is primarily rainfall dependant. Dry spells and sporadic and insufficient rainfall were experienced between January and February 2024, resulting in the wilting of crops, negatively affecting the prospects of a good harvest this season. In the projected period (July-September 2024) the food insecure population is expected to worsen with an additional 8 percent. This is about 1.4 million people (48 percent of the population of Namibia) who will experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Crisis or above).
The Namibia Metrological Service Climate Bulletin for March 2024, shows that the rainfall performance over Namibia has been minimal with the bulk of the country having received below-normal rainfall for the period of October 2023 to April 2024. The southern parts of the country have been severely impacted by drier conditions. This is mostly attributed to the effects of the present El Nino conditions over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño in southern Africa is associated with drought, erratic rainfall, and high temperatures, leading to water scarcity, reduced food availability, and disease outbreaks. This also exacerbates the existing food security challenges and demanding increased humanitarian support, livelihoods recovery, and resilience building.
The 2023/24 Vulnerability Assessment and Analysis (VAA) food insecure population projection figures for the period of April-June 2024 from the July 2023 IPC analysis were mainly based on the assumptions that the country will receive normal to above normal rainfall which will improve the food security in the country and that the anticipated El Nino condition at the time will not be confirmed. However, due to the change in these assumptions, there is a need to update the food insecure population projected figure to recommend immediate interventions to remedy the situation on the ground. The projection update will be followed by the 2024/25 Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment and Analysis to be done in June-August 2024 to determine the actual state of food security in the country.
The 2023/24 agricultural season rainfall performance was generally poor for most of the regions, with below average rainfall recorded. The Crop Prospects, Food Security and Drought Situation Assessment Report released in March 2024 by MAWLR, reports that poor crop harvest is forecasted, especially for the northern crop growing regions. Many households, especially those in communal crop producing areas, have indicated that they have depleted their previous season’s food stock and the majority are currently dependent on the market and drought relief food. Although the drought relief food distribution is still ongoing in all the regions, it is only benefiting the identified most vulnerable households, while the number of food insecurity households is increasing. Furthermore, livestock production estimates show that poor pastures and water deficit have negatively impacted livestock production and poor grazing which has led to livestock body conditions that are fair to poor especially in the southern, western and eastern parts of the country.