Executive Summary
The past four years have brought unprecedented challenges to Myanmar, creating a profound "polycrisis." Political instability, compounded by the far-reaching impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, entrenched conflict, economic disruptions, severe human rights violations and worsening environmental degradation, have reshaped every aspect of life. Public health systems have become severely strained, while educational opportunities have diminished, leaving human capital in decline. A youth and skills exodus, driven by forced conscription, limited job opportunities, and deteriorating socio-economic conditions, have markedly depleted the nation's workforce.
This polycrisis has pushed millions into poverty, with half of the population living below the poverty line and a further one third just barely above it. Rural-to-urban migration and displacement caused by conflict have further strained urban systems, while negative coping strategies — such as, in severe cases, selling vital assets (e.g., houses, land) — perpetuate long-term socio-economic vulnerabilities. Access to electricity has plummeted to less than half of the population. Agricultural productivity, driven by access to land and affordability of inputs, is sharply declining, intensifying food insecurity, particularly in states like Rakhine and Chin. Environmental challenges, including deforestation and mangrove loss, have exacerbated climate impact risks, further threatening community livelihoods.
The coming year will test Myanmar’s resilience to its limits as it navigates the numerous challenges of this prolonged polycrisis. The international community must adapt its support strategies accordingly, prioritizing limited resources to mitigate the most severe regressions while building community resilience to ongoing and inevitable future shocks.
Active positive international engagement and negotiation with all parties involved is necessary to help the people of Myanmar navigate through their current challenges and set the stage for a better future. A more stable and peaceful Myanmar, that thrives on a legal economy, protects it human and natural resource assets and invests in the safety and prosperity of all its people is also in the self-interest of its neighbors and the international community writ large.