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RISK ANALYSIS AND EARLY ACTION SELECTION
Prioritized hazard and its historical impact.
There has been a general increase in temperatures across Myanmar over the last six decades. This has resulted in an increase in extreme high temperature days and thus the prevalence of heat-related disorders. Prolonged exposure to extreme heat, resulting in heat stress, is expected to increase in the next five years in all regions and states of Myanmar. According to the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology of Myanmar (DMH), there is high confidence that warming is very likely to continue across Myanmar. Climate change is leading to more frequent and severe heat waves. As global temperatures rise, the occurrence and intensity of heat waves are expected to increase in Myanmar.
The MONREC (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar), in Myanmar's National Adaptation Programme of Action 2016-2030, reports 1,482 cases of heatrelated disorders and 260 heat-related deaths during the summer of 2010 across the country. As a so-called silent killer, heatwave deaths are likely underreported. In addition, the report highlights that local populations in Mandalay are experiencing heat-related stresses and diseases more frequently. It adds that extreme heat days in Mandalay forced all schools to close in 2015.
In 2010, a heatwave in Mandalay, reaching a daily maximum temperature of 47°C on 20 May 2010, reportedly killed 230 people. On 20 April 2014, during a heatwave with a daily maximum temperature of 41.7°C, 49 heatstroke cases were reported in Mandalay city, of which 9 resulted in death. In Yangon, during a heatwave with a daily maximum temperature of 42.2°C in April 20194 , 8 people died from heat-related illnesses.
Additionally, while the people of Myanmar are accustomed to high temperatures throughout the year, deadly heat extremes have been increasingly recorded in recent years. This poses a problem as people may believe they are prepared for high temperatures, leading to a false safety perception. Some experiences indicate that individuals who did not seek information on heat-related illnesses during heatwaves are potentially at higher risk.
Rapid industrialization and urbanization in the country are leading to higher temperatures in urban areas, with climate change accelerating or increasing the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon. In urban areas located in wet climate zones, such as Yangon, the impacts of the UHI are further intensified by high humidity levels in the air, which heighten the impact on human health. Furthermore, with urbanization rapidly increasing in Myanmar, the number of urban poor is also expected to rise, exacerbating issues related to access to infrastructure and basic services. These factors increase the risk of negative impacts from heatwaves for the most vulnerable populations. Informal and poor housing settlements are characterized by dense and poorly built structures, with materials such as iron sheets or fibro cement roofs that are highly susceptible to extreme heat. This, combined with widespread poverty, exacerbates the exposure and vulnerability of people living in these settlements to extreme heat events.