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Stateless Rohingya in Burma/Myanmar face systematic persecution that poses an existential threat to their community. Recent violence and ongoing human rights violations against the Rohingya amount to possible crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing.

BACKGROUND:
The situation in Arakan/Rakhine state in northwest Burma/Myanmar continues to deteriorate following a series of attacks on border guard posts on 9 October by what appears to be a newly-established armed group, and a subsequent joint army-police counterinsurgency operation that began on 10 October. Since then, there have been widespread reports of mass arrests, rape, forcible removal from homes, extrajudicial killings of Rohingya and the widespread destruction of Rohingya buildings and mosques. The army deployed helicopter gunships to several Rohingya villages on 12 and 13 November, resulting in the death of at least 25 civilians. On 24 November the UN Refugee Agency's (UNHCR) representative in Bangladesh accused the Burma/Myanmar government of seeking the "ethnic cleansing" of the Rohingya from its territory.

Humanitarian assistance for more than 130,000 people in the northern part of Arakan/Rakhine state remains suspended. Following a 2 to 4 December visit to Arakan/Rakhine state, Kofi Annan, in his capacity as the Chairperson of the Advisory Commission on Rakhine State, called for humanitarian and media access to the affected area. 

On 1 December the government established a "national level committee" to investigate the 9 October border post attacks and allegations of abuses by the security forces in northern Arakan/Rakhine state. Vice President Myint Swe, a retired army general, was appointed to lead the committee, which does not include any Rohingya commissioners. 

The Rohingya, a distinct Muslim ethnic minority group, have been systematically disenfranchised and marginalized under discriminatory laws in Burma/Myanmar. In March 2015 the former government invalidated the identification cards held by many Rohingyas, forcing them to apply for citizenship as "Bengalis," implying their illegal migration from Bangladesh. This follows the government denying Rohingyas the ability to self-identify on the national census of March 2014, the first since 1983. Former President Thein Sein signed into law the last of four so-called "Protection of Race and Religion" bills in August 2015. These discriminatory laws place harsh restrictions on women and non-Buddhists, including on fundamental religious freedoms, as well as reproductive and marital rights. Rohingyas were largely disenfranchised in advance of Burma/Myanmar's historic November 2015 elections and continue to be denied citizenship and other fundamental human rights. According to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Zeid Ra'ad al Hussein, the "widespread and systematic" abuses of the Rohingya community amount to crimes against humanity. 

According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), as of November 2016 an estimated 120,000 people, mostly Rohingyas, continue to live in internally displaced persons (IDP) camps in Arakan/Rakhine state, many of them since 2012 inter-communal violence. Many Rohingyas in Arakan/Rakhine state also face the ongoing threat of recurring violence at the hands of Buddhist extremists who reject their right to exist in Burma/Myanmar. 

The cumulative impact of deteriorating living conditions, combined with ongoing persecution, has led tens of thousands of Rohingyas to flee to neighboring countries, where they are often subject to further abuse, human trafficking and refoulement. After the recent escalation of violence, as many as 20,000 Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh. The Bangladeshi authorities have been criticized for forcing many asylum-seekers to involuntarily return to Burma/Myanmar. 

The country's military forces (Tatmadaw) also pose an ongoing threat to other ethnic groups in Burma/Myanmar. While the previous government signed ceasefire agreements with several ethnic armed groups, conflict continues. The NLD government held a peace conference – the 21st Century Panglong – with ethnic armed groups from 31 August to 3 September. However, shortly after the conference fighting resumed in several states, including in northern Shan, Kachin and Karen. 

ANALYSIS:
The recent violence in Arakan/Rakhine state represents a dangerous escalation of the conflict between state security forces and the Rohingya minority, heightening the risk of further mass atrocity crimes. The obstruction of humanitarian aid further endangers the lives of vulnerable populations. 

While independent investigation into the situation in northern Arakan/Rakhine state is urgently needed, international observers have questioned the impartiality of the newly-established national investigatory committee. 

The previous government's refusal to end discriminatory state policies against Rohingyas encouraged violations of their fundamental human rights and reinforced the dangerous perception of the Rohingya as ethnic outsiders. The Protection of Race and Religion bills were intended to eradicate the Rohingya's legal right to exist as a distinct ethnic group in Burma/Myanmar. 

The NLD government, uniquely positioned to improve the plight of the Rohingya and hailed by many international partners for making progress towards democracy, has yet to repeal existing discriminatory laws and anti-Rohingya policies. 

With a pervasive culture of impunity, the military has not been held accountable for previous mass atrocity crimes, and there are grave fears for the safety of vulnerable Rohingya civilians as the security forces continue operations in Arakan/Rakhine state.

The government of Burma/Myanmar is failing to uphold its primary Responsibility to Protect with regard to the Rohingya.

INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE:
Following decades of military dictatorship, democratic reforms have contributed to rapprochement between Burma/Myanmar and the international community, including the lifting of sanctions by a number of countries.

Citing progress on human rights under the leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi, the European Union (EU) announced on 16 September that it would not be submitting a UN General Assembly human rights resolution on Burma/Myanmar for the first time since 1991, effectively terminating the position of the UN Special Adviser on Myanmar. 

At the request of the United States, on 17 November the UN Security Council (UNSC) was briefed on the situation in northern Arakan/Rakhine state by the Special Adviser of the UN Secretary-General on Myanmar, Vijay Nambiar. Following the briefing, the Permanent Representative of the United States to the UN, Samantha Power, called for international observers to be allowed to enter the affected area and for humanitarian assistance to be restored. 

On 29 November the UN Secretary-General's Special Adviser for the Prevention of Genocide, Adama Dieng, released a statement calling on the government to allow investigation of allegations of "serious human rights violations against the civilian population, particularly the Rohingya Muslim population." Special Adviser Dieng also urged the government of Bangladesh not to close its borders to refugees. 

On 4 December Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak led a protest rally in Kuala Lumpur against what he called a "genocide" of the Rohingya minority and urged other Asian countries to apply pressure on the government of Burma/Myanmar.

On 8 December Special Adviser Nambiar issued a statement calling upon Aung San Suu Kyi to visit Maungdaw and Buthidaung townships in Arakan/Rakhine state and to reassure civilians they would be protected. The Special Adviser also urged Aung San Suu Kyi to address "the root causes affecting the local population," particularly the question of citizenship. 

On 9 December Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and United States issued a statement calling for a full and immediate resumption of humanitarian assistance in Arakan/Rakhine state.

Aung San Suu Kyi called for a special informal meeting with foreign ministers of Association of Southeast Asian Nations on 19 December in Yangon to discuss international concerns over the situation in Arakan/Rakhine state. 

NECESSARY ACTION:
While responding to the recent border post attacks, the NLD government and Tatmadaw, which the government does not directly control, must work together to prioritize protection of civilians and ensure that all security operations in Arakan/Rakhine state are fully compliant with international law. Authorities must urgently ensure that humanitarian aid can reach vulnerable populations in Arakan/Rakhine state, especially the Rohingya. 

The government of Burma/Myanmar must uphold its Responsibility to Protect all populations, regardless of their ethnicity or religion. The NLD government should immediately abolish the Rakhine Action Plan and end institutionalized discrimination against the Rohingya, including the denial of citizenship. The government must prohibit hate speech and hold accountable all those who commit human rights abuses. The government should collaborate with the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) to open a UN human rights office in Burma/Myanmar.

In Arakan/Rakhine state the government must facilitate the safe, voluntary return of IDPs to their communities. Countries that receive Rohingya asylum seekers should offer them protection and assistance.

The UN should establish an independent, international Commission of Inquiry to investigate the situation in northern Arakan/Rakhine state.