Attachments
Key Findings
- In 2020, the area under opium poppy cultivation in Myanmar was estimated at 29,500 (21,000 to 50,400) hectares. In comparison to 2019, the area under opium cultivation has decreased by 11% or 3,600 hectares, which is a continuation of the downward trend that had started in 2014.
- Reductions have taken place in East, North and South Shan with respective decreases of 17%, 10% and 9% from 2019 levels. In Kachin State, the area under cultivation decreased by 6%.
- The average opium yield in 2019 was estimated at 13.7 kilograms per hectare.
- Potential opium production was estimated at 405 metric tons in 2020. Shan State, which supplied 82% of the total, remained the main producing region with 331 tons.
- Eradication, as reported by the Government, showed a similar trend as opium poppy cultivation over the last nine years, with increases from 2010 to 2012-2014 and decreases from 2015 onwards. The eradication numbers for the 2020 growing season (from October 2019 to May 2020) were 18% lower than for the same period in 2019.
- For the period January to September 2020, the weight of seized opiates reported by GOUM/CCDAD increased significantly compared to 2019. This was the case for the weight of both opium (6,506 kg) and heroin (1,389 kg) seizures, which increased by 285% and 100% respectively.
- With an estimated gross value ranging from US$ 0.5 to 1.6 billion, the illegal opiate market in Myanmar represented 0.7 – 2.1% of the GDP.
- Farmers cultivating opium earned between US$ 58 - 98 million in 2020, which is approximately 6 - 12% of the overall value of the opiate economy or 0.4% of the agricultural sector’s value.
- The largest share of the 2020 opiate market value was generated by heroin consumption, manufacturing and trafficking. Domestic heroin consumption (6 tons of heroin) was valued between US$ 144 - 315 million, whereas exports of heroin (13 - 53 tons) were worth between US$ 299 - 1,205 million. Domestic opium consumption and exports accounted for a smaller share of the market value, US$ 17 million and US$ 42 respectively.
- Between 2015 and 2020, farm-gate prices of fresh and dry opium decreased by 52% and 61%, respectively. Decreasing prices together with a reduced supply of opium can be an indication of a decreased demand for opiates from Myanmar in the country and the region.