Attachments
SITUATION ANALYSIS
Description of the crisis
Entering 2023, it has been two years since the military intervention on 1 February 2021. The country context has become more complex due to the extent of political and civic disorders, including a series of armed clashes, including the use of airstrikes, artillery shells, and heavy weapons between the Myanmar Armed Forces (MAF) and various Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) in different states and regions. The economic situation has remained fragile due to transport blocks, locally increased demands, currency devaluation and rampant inflation that has led the prices of the basic food basket and items, fuel, and transportation to increase sharply. Almost half the population in the country is estimated to be living in poverty due to the political crisis and the pre-existing impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Despite rising humanitarian needs, access to humanitarian assistance has been severely undermined by the heavy restrictions of people’s movements, the imposition of systematic roadblocks, the blackouts and internet shutdowns, and the lengthy bureaucratic processes for approvals through checkpoints at the ground level. Furthermore, a new Organization Registration Law was established for international NGOs, national NGOs and Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) since 28 October 2022, which has potential to further limit the work of humanitarian actors in Myanmar. Twice in the course of 2022, ACAPS2 identified Myanmar as one of only four country contexts in the world in which there are extreme constraints for humanitarian access, highlighting the challenges that continue to be faced by all humanitarian organisations, as well as by affected populations seeking to reach humanitarian assistance.
Armed conflicts and clashes have escalated and are still ongoing in states and regions across the country. This has already forced nearly 1.2 million people to flee their homes since the military intervention, out of more than 1.5 million internally displaced in total as of 26 December 2022, living in informal settlements across the country. An estimated 34,380 civilian properties, including houses, churches, monasteries and schools, have been burnt or destroyed since February 2021.
The highest displacements are in the Northwest where 795,600 people (47,200 IDPs in Chin, 124,400 IDPs in Magway and 624,000 IDPs in Sagaing) remain displaced since February 2021. Conflicts and threats have continued to rise across Chin, Magway, and Sagaing due to sustained fighting between MAF and PDFs there, including airstrikes, mortar fires, and ambushes. As a result, security checks and roadblocks have remained tight, affecting movements on roads and waterways and thereby reducing and hindering the capacity of aid workers to deliver humanitarian services.
Many townships in the Northwest also continue to face internet shutdowns.
In the Southeast of the country, armed clashes have continued between the MAF and the joint forces of Karenni Nationalities Defence Forces (KNDF), Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and local PDFs in various townships of Southern Shan, Kayah, Kayin and Mon States, and Eastern Bago and Tanintharyi Regions. There have been reports of airstrikes and artillery fires, resulting in civilian casualties including children. Prohibition of access to many townships in Southern Shan and Kayah State has remained in place with an increased number of checkpoints and tight scrutiny measures, restricting the movement of humanitarian partners into the area. Since the end of September 2022, overall displacements have increased across the Southeast. As of 26 December 2022, around 339,000 people are displaced in the different townships of the Southeast.
Armed clashes between the MAF and the joint forces of Kachin Independent Army (KIA) and PDFs have continued to increase in several townships in Kachin State, including Hpakant and Myitkyina. On 23 October 2022, an airstrike reportedly killed and injured many people including civilians, also displacing around 3,000 people in several villages in Hpakant town. In October and November 2022, a series of continued heavy artillery fires and shelling have been reported in several villages in Hpakant township, including reports of killed civilians and a partially destroyed primary school at Momauk town and, leaving many more people displaced in religious compounds of various townships in Kachin State. Security has been tense in and around Myitkyina due to the heavy reinforcements of the MAF outside the town and military operations associated with the surrounding area.
As of 19 December 2022, there has been a total of more than 90,500 IDPs in Rakhine State. Despite the informal ceasefire agreement between the MAF and the Arakan Army (AA), more than 42 civilians have been reportedly killed during the fighting between August and November 2022, displacing more than 39,000 people in Rakhine and Paletwa township in Chin State. In addition, movement restrictions and roadblocks have caused severe hardship for civilians in the area.
As of 26 December 2022, there were reportedly around 17,300 people displaced in informal settlements in Northern Shan State due to the armed clashes between the MAF and various EAOs. Forced recruitment is one of the major security concerns in Southern Shan State. A total of 153 civilians have been abducted for forced recruitment in various townships of Northern Shan State since January 20221, either for involuntary labour by the military or as fighters by ethnic armed groups or other groups.