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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Major earthquake exacerbated already critical levels of acute food insecurity
- Earthquake caused widespread damage to agricultural sector
- Average cereal exports forecast in 2024/25
- Prices of Emata rice at high levels in March 2025
Major earthquake exacerbates already critical levels of acute food insecurity
On 28 March 2025, a powerful earthquake of 7.7 MW magnitude on the Richter scale, caused widespread devastation in central parts of the country. It was the most severe seismic event recorded in over 110 years and its epicentre was located near Mandalay, the country’s second largest city. A series of aftershocks followed, with magnitudes ranging from 2.8 to 6.4 MW. As of 21 April 2025, at least 5 735 people were reported dead and more than 5 100 injured, while thousands were displaced, and livelihoods and food supplies were severely disrupted. In addition, the earthquake caused extensive destruction to critical infrastructure, including hospitals, schools, roads and bridges, especially in the densely populated regions of Sagaing, Mandalay, Magway as well as in Bago the Shan states. According to the ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System, approximately 38.1 million people, about half of the country’s total population, were living in areas that were exposed to the earthquake.
The negative effects of the earthquake have exacerbated an already dire food insecurity situation in the country. According to the 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan, published last December, about 15.2 million people (28 percent of the population) were projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity in 2025, showing an increase from 13.3 million people in 2024. The deterioration was driven by the cumulative effects of multiple shocks, including Typhoon Yagi, which affected central and southern parts of the country in September 2024, persistent high food prices and the ongoing conflict that began in early 2021 and intensified from late 2023, causing large-scale displacements. As of early April 2025, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) was estimated at a record of 3.5 million and almost half of them were living in the areas affected by the earthquake. Additionally, about 1 million Forcibly Displaced Myanmar National people reside in Cox’s Bazar District of Bangladesh, relying heavily on humanitarian assistance to fulfil their basic needs.
Earthquake caused widespread damage to agricultural sector
Although the full impact of the earthquake on the agriculture sector has not yet been fully assessed, preliminary reports indicate widespread damage to cropland, irrigation infrastructure, storage facilities and agricultural equipment. Over 3.7 million hectares of cropland across key agricultural regions, Sagaing, Magway, Mandalay and Shan were exposed to the earthquake. These regions produce one-third of Myanmar’s cereal production and nearly 80 percent of its maize output. The earthquake also affected livestock and fisheries sectors, causing the collapse of shelters and destruction of feedstock and fishponds. The affected areas account for a significant share of the country’s livestock production. Thus, the earthquake exacerbated the challenges faced by farming communities already burdened by conflict, heavy flooding in September 2024 and market disruptions.
At the time of the earthquake, harvesting of the 2024/25 secondary rice and maize crops, accounting for about 15 percent of the annual output, had just started and operations were disrupted in the hardest-hit areas due to labour shortages. The earthquake affected standing crops especially vegetable and sesame, and induced landslides and cracks caused severe localized rice and maize crop losses. However, as the 2024 main paddy crop, which accounts for about 80 percent of the annual output, was already harvested prior to the earthquake. Pending assessment of the secondary season losses due to the earthquake, 2024 aggregate paddy output is currently forecast to contract to 27.7 million tonnes. The 2024 aggregate maize output is forecast at a below-average level of 2 million tonnes, mainly reflecting a contraction in area planted, primarily due to restricted access to fields caused by the ongoing conflict in northern regions, where maize cultivation is concentrated. Some farmers also shifted maize land to more profitable crops, such as chili peppers and pulses.
Planting of the 2025 main season paddy and maize crops normally takes place between May and August. Many farmers lost critical agricultural inputs, such as seeds, fertilizers and machinery, due to the earthquake and it may result in a contraction in the area planted and a negative impact on crop development.
Average cereal exports forecast in 2024/25
Total cereal exports in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at average 3.6 million tonnes, including 2 million tonnes of rice and 1.5 million tonnes of maize.
Prices of rice at elevated levels in March 2025
Retail prices of Emata rice, the main consumed type of rice, declined slightly between January and March 2025, with the commercialization of the 2024 main harvest. However, as of March 2025, prices remained close to the elevated levels a year earlier, supported by storm-induced crop losses, high costs of agricultural inputs and transport, conflict-related market disruptions and, more recently, concerns over the impact of the earthquake on the 2024/25 secondary harvest.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .
FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .
FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .