Southern Africa: El Niño Regional Humanitarian Overview, September 2024

Southern Africa experienced its worst drought in over 100 years

The 2023/24 rainy seasons resulted in dry conditions across the Southern Africa region due to the warm El Niño phase declared by the World Meteorological Organization in early July 2023. The drought conditions led to the late onset of rains, prolonged mid-season dry spells and high temperatures. Mid-season precipitations were well below-normal during a critical period for crops and were the lowest recorded in over 40 years. Meanwhile, heat waves resulted in temperatures five degrees above average. The effects of El Niño were atypical as they have been more pronounced than usual mostly in the central parts of the region, while northern regions, such as eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania, experienced wetter conditions.

However, in some areas, including parts of Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia and Madagascar, El Niño has caused heavy rains and flooding, affecting thousands of people. In particular, the Government of Madagascar declared a national disaster due to Tropical Cyclone Gamane in April 2024. According to an assessment conducted by humanitarian partners and the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management, about 535,000 people living in the 33 flooded communes were affected including 22,000 displaced, most of whom were sheltered in temporary sites. In Malawi, floods caused extensive damage to infrastructure, agricultural assets, food stocks and housing, affecting more than 156,000 people and displacing more than 18, 000 people in the east of the country. In addition, torrential rains caused by Tropical Storm Filipo hit Mozambique in March affecting more 149,000 people in the provinces of Maputo, Sofala, Inhambane and Gaza.

The worst drought-affected areas are in the south and eastern regions of Angola, northern Botswana, southern Malawi, central Mozambique, northern Namibia, southern and western South Africa, most of Zambia, eastern Madagascar, and eastern and northern Zimbabwe. The driest phase of this period was from 21 January 2024 when the central and southeastern parts of the region experienced extremely dry, and hot conditions, for over 50 days. Rainfall in these areas plummeted to record lows during this period. February was the driest month in over 100 years; only 1992 being comparable in dryness¹.

Vegetation deteriorated considerably in February due to the dry conditions in the central and southeastern areas, according to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The NDVI was below average in large areas of southern and eastern Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, southern and central Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, southern/ western Zambia and Zimbabwe. Many of the areas with poor vegetation conditions are primarily grassland where livestock are an important livelihood asset. Pasture and livestock were noted to be in poor condition in Namibia and Zambia due to prolonged dry spells recorded in previous, and current, seasons. This has led to a high risk of livestock mortality due to the drying up of pastures with over 9, 000 drought-related cattle deaths reported in Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe between October 2023 and February 2024.

Compared to the El-Niño event of 2015/16, the 2023/2024 phenomenon affected more countries and its impacts in Southern Africa were more intense. El Niño as a climate event was stronger in 2015/16 than in 2023/24. However, the impacts of El Niño 2023/24 are more significant as they were exacerbated by various factors including climate change, deforestation and economic constraints. The 2015-2016 El Niño, which was classified as very strong, resulted in the worst drought in Southern Africa in 35 years, with its impact extending into 2017. Poor rainfall and high temperatures undermined crop growth. In Zimbabwe, Lesotho, South Africa, Eswatini and Zambia, planting was delayed by two months or more, severely impacting maize yields. By the end of the 2015/16 season, the region experienced a cereal deficit of 7.9 million metric tons and more than 40 million people needed humanitarian assistance. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) launched of a humanitarian appeal for the drought response, requesting US$2.4 billion to assist affected people in some countries. For the 2023/2024 El-Niño, six countries declared a state of emergency linked to severe drought including Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. According to the SADC Appeal, a total of 61 million people need assistance, a more than 50 per cent increase from the 2016/2017 season, and more than $5.5 billion is required (as of May 2024) to meet their life-saving and life-sustaining needs.