The retaking of Mocimboa da Praia will stall the spread of the Islamist militant insurgency for now, though the civilian death toll from the conflict is likely to increase along with human rights abuses.
This document provides an analysis of the current situation and the implications for aid agencies.
AID OPERATIONS IN MOZAMBIQUE
● The recent increase in armed conflict events between state and non-state actors will LIKELY continue to impact aid operations in the Cabo Delgado province, particularly in the northeastern coastal area.
● Sustained attacks on civilians by non-state actors means beneficiaries will continue to need targeted aid.
● Although there are no reports of aid workers being arrested, kidnapped or killed in Mozambique in recent months, aid workers have experienced violence on at least one recent occasion in Cabo Delgado.
● Aid operations in Cabo Delgado have also been affected by a deteriorating security context and difficulties in distributing humanitarian supplies.
● With the loss of Mocímboa da Praia, Islamic State (IS) will move further towards an insurgency rather than peer to peer conflict.
● The war is far from over as insurgencies take time to control and deconflict.