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Mozambique

Mozambique - Recovery from Recurrent Floods 2000-2013: Recovery Framework Case Study, August 2014

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The World Bank’s Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the European Union (EU) are working on a guide for developing disaster recovery frameworks (DRF). This guide aims to help governments and partners plan for resilient post disaster recovery while contributing to longer term sustainable development. It is based on practices gleaned from country experiences in disaster recovery around the world. Hence, the development of the DRF Guide entailed the development of country-level case studies as well as thematic case studies on disaster recovery.

These case studies have been designed to collect and analyze information on: i) disaster recovery standards and principles adapted by countries for specific disasters; ii) planning efforts for making such recovery efficient, equitable and resilient; iii) policies, institutions and capacities to implement and monitor disaster recovery; and iv) ways and means for translating the gains of resilient recovery into longer-term risk reduction and resilient development.

Importantly, these case studies aim to learn from, and not evaluate, country reconstruction initiatives. Practices learned from each country’s experience will inform the contents of the guide for developing a DRF. Additionally, the case studies examine the planning processes and not the implementation details of recovery experiences.

As such, they do not seek to offer a comprehensive account of the post-disaster recovery program, but instead provide details and insight into the decision-making processes for reconstruction policies and programs.

RECURRING DISASTERS IN MOZAMBIQUE

The three biggest floods recorded in Mozambique happened in the 21st century: the first in 2000/2001, the second flooded Central Mozambique in 2007/2008, and most recently the 2013 floods. By its location on the southeastern coast of Africa, and located downstream from several major rivers, Mozambique is considered to be extremely prone to recurrent natural hazards, namely floods, tropical storms, drought, and earthquakes. Nine of its rivers have sources in neighboring countries, requiring cross-border coordination for early warning alerts. Sixty percent of the population lives along the coastline and are therefore vulnerable to tropical storms.

Economic gains in the country are significantly undermined as a result of recurrent water and weather related hazards; consequent economic losses are estimated to average 1.1 percent of GDP annually. Worse, natural disasters such as floods and cyclones have a lasting impact that affects disproportionally the poorest. The World Bank estimated the relative impact of various shocks on poverty: floods and cyclones were estimated to have the strongest impact at the household level, reducing expenditures by about 32 percent and contributing more than 2 percentage points to the poverty rate. When facing a shock, poor households are often forced to sacrifice their long-term interests for the sake of immediate needs, for example by withdrawing children from school to supplement household labor, or by selling or consuming productive capital. In the long run these coping mechanisms make households poorer and even more vulnerable, and may transmit these adverse effects to future generations through their impact on education and health outcomes1.

The 2000 floods were caused by heavy rainfall in the Southern Africa region that lasted for five weeks, exacerbated by tropical cyclones. For the first time in recorded history, simultaneous and major flooding occurred in all of the major rivers that flow into the Indian Ocean through Mozambique – impacting the population in the southern half of the country, from the Limpopo River basin to Maputo (the capital). The flooding of the Limpopo, Incomati, Umbeluzi, Save, Buzi and Pungue rivers were also one of the costliest disasters in Mozambique’s history. At least 700 people died, up to 650,0002 were displaced and 4.5 million were affected, totaling a quarter of Mozambique’s population. GDP fell from a forecast 7 percent to 1.5 percent.

The rainy season of 2013 recalled the year 2000 in terms of the height to which the flood waters rose, but with much lower impact on the population. Southern Mozambique was again devastated: 30 people died as a direct consequence of floods3 in the Limpopo River basin, and up to 186.000 were evacuated. Damages were estimated to exceed US$250 million; of which 50 percent on the road network and 30 percent in the agricultural sector.

Most of the infrastructure on the Lower Limpopo flood plains was built in the 1950s, before increasingly severe flooding needed to be factored into engineering designs. At the same time, the population of Chókwe has nearly doubled since 1997, and infrastructure development has increased rapidly in the lower Limpopo – making more people and material assets vulnerable to climatic risk.

The impact from the two flood events are compared in Table 1. The sharp decrease in fatality rates and the impact of natural disasters indicates that disasters are being managed more effectively. This reflects lessons learned in the prior decade, including flood forecasting, early warning systems and trans-boundary cooperation. Most importantly, national investment and international cooperation in strengthening institutional capacity and readiness has noticeably reduced the devastating impact of disasters on human lives and housing.