JOHANNESBURG, 19 April (IRIN) - The
Mozambican government and World Bank have forecast a significant slowdown
in economic growth as a result of February's devastating floods, while
humanitarian agencies report that more emergency assistance is needed to
help people cope with the disaster.
Finance Minister Luisa Biogo has cut
GDP growth projections from more than 8 percent to 6 percent, and said
that inflation would accelerate from 5.5 percent in 1999 to around 10 percent.
The World Bank anticipates GDP growth will be in the region of 5 percent.
Its preliminary estimates of the cost of the flooding is some US $1 billion.
Despite Mozambique's startling growth rates in recent years, more than two-thirds of the country's population were assessed as living below the poverty line in 1999, partly as a result of the previous decade of civil war. The widespread flooding, which destroyed homes and farms and washed away infrastructure, has served to deepen that poverty. The government's Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper, presented to the International Monetary Fund in February, now looks sadly outdated.
Meanwhile, the World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that confirmed donor pledges for its emergency operation only cover 35 percent of its US $36 million appeal. A WFP official told IRIN on Wednesday that donors appear to be waiting for the 2 May Rome conference on Mozambique, but by May the food pipeline to feed 597,000 people would be under strain. He pointed out that the time taken from pledges made to food arriving in Mozambique could take between one and four months. "We can't afford breaks, and the pipeline is only solid until mid-May."
He added that the withdrawal of foreign military assistance has resulted in a reduction of WFP aid flights. Just under 30 aircraft are in operation which WFP funding can sustain until the end of this month. Road transportation is not yet a viable option as "the road network is in no condition to deliver food to isolated areas," the official said. "In terms of logistics things aren't back to normal yet."
The government is nevertheless gearing up for the systematic return of displaced people to their homes by the end of the month, "and we have to be ready for that", the WFP staffer added. The agency would need to provide the displaced with packages of seeds, tools and at a minimum a two week supply of food.
[ENDS]
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