Area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to continue across conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado. Although some IDPs have begun returning to their areas of origin, emergency food assistance needs remain high, with more than 866,000 people likely to receive monthly humanitarian food assistance through June 2022. However, due to limited resources, WFP continues to provide half monthly rations equivalent to 39 percent of the daily kcals through at least October. In October, WFP is planning a vulnerability-based targeting exercise covering IDPs and host communities to better target food assistance beneficiaries who are most in need. Other humanitarian organizations will likely continue to assist accessible locations in October in coordination with district authorities. Across most of central and southern Mozambique, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes prevail as most poor households prepare for the upcoming agricultural season.
The seven-day rolling average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases reduced from a peak of around 1,900 cases in early August to around 73 cases by September 26, signaling the end of the third wave and the relaxation of some COVID-19 prevention measures; however, most government COVID-19 control measures are expected to continue. As of September 28, 2021, Mozambique has administered at least 3.64 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines, enough to vaccinate around 6.3 percent of the population with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Around 5.7 percent of the population is estimated to be fully vaccinated. Most COVID-19 control measures remain in place, particularly impacting the economic activity of informal and small businesses. Most urban poor households are likely Stressed (IPC Phase 2), with the most vulnerable and very poor households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.
In August, maize grain prices continued to increase following the seasonal trend. In most markets, maize grain prices have increased between 6 and 33 percent except for a sharp 70 percent increase in Mutarara. Compared to last year, maize grain prices were 5 to 34 percent below their respective 2020 prices, except in Manica and Montepuez, where maize grain prices are 5-7 percent above last year’s prices. High prices in Mutarara, Manica, and Montepuez are likely to be driven by high local and regional demand for maize grain for domestic markets, milling industries, and in the case of Montepuez, reduced supply and increased demand due to conflict in parts of Cabo Delgado. Maize grain prices in August had a mixed trend compared to the five-year average. However, rice and maize meal prices were generally stable from July to August.
Average to above-average rainfall is expected across much of Mozambique between October 2021 and March 2022, driven by weak La Niña conditions from August 2021 through March 2022. An average to above-average 2021/22 agricultural season is likely to support household food stocks and income from agricultural labor and crop sales across Mozambique for a second consecutive year, except in eastern Cabo Delgado due to the current insecurity. However, there is a moderate to high risk for localized flooding in Maputo, Umbeluzi, Incomati, Limpopo, Búzi, Púnguè, Savane, and Licungo basins which may result in localized reductions in yields depending on the timing and extent of flooding. Currently, rural households are preparing their fields for the upcoming agricultural season and are expected to plant on time.