Attachments
Key Messages:
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through January 2023 in the conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado, drought-affected areas of southern Mozambique, and flood- and tropical storm-impacted areas of Nampula due to low food reserves and limited access to income. In these areas, poor households have already exhausted or have nearly exhausted their food reserves, with the typical start of the lean season approaching. Across most of central Mozambique, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes prevail as most poor households are still recovering from over the last four years, including cyclones, floods, irregular rainfall (droughts), and the COVID-19 pandemic.
In September, insurgents carried out several attacks in Cabo Delgado and Nampula that destroyed infrastructure, houses, and resulted in fatalities. According to IOM's Displacement Tracking Matrix, more than 15,400 people in Cabo Delgado were recorded on the move between August 31 and September 20. Around 60 percent of people on the move reported travelling due to attacks or fear of attacks, while around 37 percent are moving with the intention to return to their regions of origin or to join their families. According to an inter-cluster assessment in September, around 47,000 displaced people are in Eráti district, Nampula province, and being hosted by family and friends. In more accessible areas of Cabo Delgado where humanitarian partners can regularly distribute humanitarian food assistance to IDPs and host communities, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are present.
In August, maize grain prices increased by 8 to 18 percent as consumer demand increases with the upcoming lean season. However, maize grain prices fell 12 percent in Mutarara after prices had doubled in July. In Maputo, Chókwe, Massinga, and Montepuez markets, maize grain prices have remained relatively stable but are likely to rise in the coming months with the start of the lean season. Compared to prices last year, maize grain prices in August are 6 to 41 percent above the five-year average in most monitored markets, except Montepuez and Lichinga, where prices are 16 percent below the five-year average. Maize meal and rice prices remained relatively stable from July to August. Compared to last year and the five-year average, maize meal prices are similar in most markets and mixed in a few markets, while rice prices are mixed compared to prices in 2021, and are between 7 to 27 percent higher than the five-year average in most monitored markets.
In August, Mozambique's annual inflation increased to 12.1 percent, the highest since August 2017. In response to the acute rise in living costs, the government announced a set of measures in August to stimulate the economy and contain inflation. In August, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.5 percent, a slightly lower rate than in July. The biggest contributors to the monthly inflation rate are transport and food & non-alcoholic beverages. In particular, Mozambique's National Institute of Statistics (INE) highlights price increases in public transport prices, onions, and tomatoes as contributing the most to the monthly inflation rate. Poor households, particularly in peri-urban areas where many households rely heavily on public transport and purchased food, are likely the most impacted by rising inflation. To cope with the rise in prices, affected households are purchasing less preferred foods and reducing spending on non-food needs and are likely Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
The 2022/23 rainy season in central and southern Mozambique is likely to be above normal with a normal start based on forecast models and forecast climate modes. However, in northern Mozambique, forecasts indicate a likely slow start and below-average rainfall. Additionally, there is an increased likelihood of an above-average number of cyclone strikes between December 2022 and March 2023. The 2022/23 agricultural season is likely to support household food stocks and income from agricultural labor and crop sales across Mozambique, except in eastern Cabo Delgado, due to insecurity. However, flooding along major watersheds may result in crop losses. Currently, rural households in the southern and central regions are preparing their fields for the upcoming agricultural season and are expected to plant on time.