Attachments
This information product is a combination of the results from the October 2024 post-harvest IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) analysis and the post-shock analysis conducted in July 2024.
Overview
The results presented in this snapshot intend to provide a national overview of the acute food insecurity situation in Mozambique through the lean season. It is a combination of the results from the October 2024 post-harvest IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) analysis in 47 highly productive districts, and the post-shock analysis conducted in July 2024 in 68 districts. Overall, the combined snapshot covers 116 districts and analyses a total population of 20.3 million people. The projection period of both analyses aligns with the October 2024 to March 2025 lean season. For districts appearing in both analyses, the latest results from October 2024 were included.
Food insecurity in Mozambique during the lean season is set to worsen due to a combination of climatic shocks, conflict, and the depletion of food reserves. Nearly 5 million people are likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between October 2024 and March 2025. This includes 912,000 people likely to experience IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and nearly 4 million people likely to experience IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
The key drivers of the acute food insecurity situation include the El Niño phenomena, which has significantly impacted the 2023/24 rainy and agricultural season in over 100 districts of Mozambique, leaving a lasting effect on projected food insecurity levels through March 2025. In the first half of 2024, over 60 districts faced cyclones and tropical storm Filipo, which particularly affected the provinces of Sofala, Inhambane, Gaza, and Maputo. Storms occurred amidst a drier-than-normal rainy season that affected agricultural production, especially in the productive central provinces. Other storms hit Northern Mozambique more recently, between December and January 2025.
Additionally, the ongoing armed conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and agricultural production. Despite increased levels of stability in the northern provinces, small, scattered groups of armed actors continue to operate in several locations of Cabo Delgado, leading to continued tension and fear of new attacks. As of late 2024, Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Nampula provinces kept hosting almost 580,000 IDPs in addition to 610,000 returnees.
Financial access to food also remains challenging in the consumption year 2024-25, particularly in less productive agricultural areas of southern and central Mozambique that were heavily affected by cyclones and drought in 2024. As of late 2024, the retail price of maize and millet in the southern and central markets exceeded both late 2023 levels, and the five-year average. Prices in northern Mozambique provinces remained relatively more stable. however, low purchasing power continues to be the primary barrier to food access for most of the population.