Mozambique Food Security Outlook Update, September 2018

from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 29 Sep 2018 View Original

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes likely to prevail in southern and central regions through the lean season

Key Messages

  • Due to the failed or significantly below average 2018 harvest Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are present in semiarid areas of southern and central regions. The forecast El Niño and suppressed rainfall, will likely delay the availability of green foods in these areas as more households will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through January 2019 in these areas. However, in some non-remote central semiarid areas, due to a larger than previously anticipated harvest Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are most likely. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are present in areas affected by sporadic attacks in Cabo Delgado, where rural households are forced to abandon their homes. The rest of the country is facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.
  • According to the SACORF, average to below-average rainfall is anticipated in southern and central regions primarily due to the forecast weak El Niño during the main rainfall season. In producing areas however, rainfall is expected to be average to above-average favoring crop development especially during the second half of the season. There is a low to moderate risk of flooding, except in northern river basins where there is a high risk of flooding during the second half of the season.
  • In August, maize grain prices increased across all monitored markets, but had larger increases in northern markets. August prices on average were 32 percent above the five-year average and 91 percent above last year’s prices. In northern markets prices increased faster than normal, likely related to increased purchases by the increased number of traders buying grain for mills and export.