Generally favorable food security outcomes expected through May 2018
Across most of Mozambique, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to prevail through May 2018, following the above-average 2016/17 agricultural season. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are present in parts of Sofala, Manica, and Tete provinces. As the lean season progresses, there is an expected deterioration to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in northwestern Sofala until the harvest in mid-April. Poor households in these areas are expected to require humanitarian assistance to cover their food gaps.
Food access remains favorable across the country as the bumper crop production is directly reflected in lower staple food prices. Atypical, stable maize grain prices continued in August, September, and October at below five-year averages. According to FEWS NET price projections, this trend is likely to continue through at least May 2018. As poor households continue to restore previously depleted incomes throughout the 2017/18 agricultural season, these lower staple food prices are expected to ease livelihood recovery.
The rainfall forecast indicates a timely start and generally positive cropping conditions, which is likely to lead to near-average 2017/18 crop production. As a result, this is expected to lead to generally favorable food availability and access through May 2018, with a few exceptions. With expected La Niña conditions, there is a chance for increased cyclonic activity that could impact Mozambique, and there is also a moderate to high risk of flooding in some river basins during January to March 2018.