Crisis outcomes expected through at least March due to drought, floods, and cyclone effects
- The number of people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse is expected to reach about 2.3 million between now and March 2017, including potentially 300,000 flood and cyclone affected people. Household food stocks are exhausted, and poor households are relying on limited market access, wild foods, and humanitarian assistance, where available, to try to cover their food gaps. In January, food assistance covered approximately 900,000 people, representing only 45 percent of the 2 million assessed needs, and these levels are likely to continue through March 2017.
- Tropical Cyclone Dineo hit coastal Inhambane Province on February 15, and according to preliminary estimates, the category 3 cyclone affected nearly 551,000 people and destroyed 27,000 hectares of crops. The most vulnerable households, who already faced Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to drought-related food gaps, are likely to face acute food shortages until at least the end of March, requiring urgent food assistance as well as seeds.
- Due to largely favorable rainfall, a near-average harvest is expected across southern and central areas, beginning in March, despite some areas that needed to replant due to localized flooding or faced seed access challenges. However, below-average production is likely in coastal areas of Nampula and Cabo Delgado due to erratic and poor rainfall, and to a lesser extent in Zambézia. Fortunately localized cases of armyworm appear under control.
- From April to May, with the harvests taking place country-wide, besides flood-affected areas, FEWS NET expects the number of people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will drop significantly as the majority of households will be accessing their own produced food, and staple prices are expected to gradually ease. From June to September, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected across all areas, but there could still be localized households in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), particularly in coastal Cabo Delgado, and even in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), who are recovering from late season shocks.