Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in Cabo Delgado through May 2022
- Most households in rural areas face None (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes as the lean season starts, supported by their food stocks and food purchases in local markets. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist in areas that have been impacted by natural disasters over the last three years, but outcomes are expected to improve in April 2022 supported by a forecast average rainy season and harvest. In Cabo Delgado, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in conflict-affected areas where the IOM estimates that around 642,000 IDPs in Cabo Delgado are living with host families or resettlement areas with little to no access to their basic livelihood activities. In urban and peri-urban areas, most poor households are likely Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as COVID-19 control measures and below-average economic activity impacts household purchasing power, with the most vulnerable households likely in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
- In Cabo Delgado, there are reports of some IDPs returning to their areas of origin to assess livelihood opportunities (agriculture, fishing, trade), the impact of the conflict on their properties, and the possibility of returning with their families. However, most IDPs are expected to remain in conflict-free areas of Cabo Delgado through the 2021/2022 rainy season due to security concerns. In late October, the government began distributing seeds and other agricultural inputs to IDPs to increase agricultural production and reduce food insecurity concerns. However, humanitarian food assistance needs will likely remain high until at least the harvest in May 2022. The World Food Programme (WFP) is anticipating more than 930,000 IDPs and host families in Cabo Delgado, Niassa, and Nampula to likely require HFA through May 2022. However, due to limited resources, WFP plans to continue providing half monthly rations equivalent to 39 percent of daily kcals until January 2022. WFP plans to resume full distribution following the results of an ongoing vulnerability-based targeting exercise. Other humanitarian organizations are likely to provide food assistance to accessible areas in coordination with district authorities.
- The forecast average rainy season is likely to support average crop production for the 2021/2022 agricultural season across most of Mozambique. However, there is a moderate to high-risk probability of flooding, which could lead to crop loss in the nearby lowland areas, including the Maputo, Umbelúzi, Incomati, Limpopo, Búzi, Púnguè, Savane, and Licungo river basins. To reduce the risk of flooding, the Pequenos Libombos dam authorities in Maputo have increased discharges by more than 130 percent to build retention capacity to accommodate upstream flows through the upcoming rainy season, as the dam is at 91 percent of capacity at the start of the rainy season.
- From August to September, the price of maize grain had a mixed trend, with most markets showing stable prices. However, maize grain prices did decrease in some markets by 6-7 percent due to local supply and demand changes. Compared to last year, maize grain prices in September are 8-27 percent lower across all monitored markets, likely reflecting the larger national grain supply. Compared to the five-year average, maize grain prices in September had a mixed trend with market prices ranging from similar to the five-year average, 11-25 percent below the five-year average and 6-24 percent above the five-year average. Maize meal and rice prices had a stable trend from August to September.