Mozambique Food Security Outlook, October 2019 to May 2020

Situation Report
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Humanitarian food assistance is improving food security outcomes across the country


• Currently, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes prevail in areas of Sofala, Manica and Cabo Delgado provinces as humanitarian assistance continues to mitigate more severe outcomes. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists in southern semiarid areas as well as in parts of Tete and Zambézia.
Humanitarian food assistance is planned and likely to increase in central and northern areas as well as extend to southern areas in November where Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected to prevail through May 2020.
The rest of the country will be facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase2) outcomes.

• Planned and likely humanitarian food assistance is anticipated to cover slightly over half of the food assistance needs from November 2019 to March 2020. Despite humanitarian assistance improving outcomes across the country, additional resources are required to fully cover the needs, particularly in parts of the country where Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist.

• Market and household food supply are below average in areas affected by shocks in 2019. As a result, maize grain prices are increasing atypically fast and are 65 percent above last years’ prices and nearly 50 percent above the five-year average across all markets. However, prices of substitutes for maize grain, namely maize meal and rice, which are largely imported, remain stable and close to last year’s and average prices.

• Land preparation and planting activities are underway in parts of southern Mozambique, where rainfall has started although erratically. However, given the forecast of an erratic onset of rainfall with below average cumulative rainfall for southern and parts of central regions, crop production and households incomes from labor and crop sales is most likely to be below average. Given the level of disruption of livelihoods in the drought and cyclone affected areas, seed distribution is crucial for successful planting and harvest.