Cabo Delgado expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through January 2022
Across Mozambique, most households are consuming the 2020/2021 agricultural season harvest driving None (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes as households recover from previous shocks such as cyclones, drought, and flooding. In Cabo Delgado, the ongoing conflict continues to displace households and disrupt livelihoods driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes that are expected to persist through the scenario period. Of concern are inaccessible areas where households hide in the bush and are at risk of facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.
The increasing number of IDPs in Cabo Delgado who have lost access to their typical livelihood activities and require emergency food assistance are burdening host families/communities and straining the current capacity of the humanitarian response. The 2021 Mozambique Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) estimates around 950,000 people need food security in Cabo Delgado, Niassa, and Nampula, with 750,000 people targeted for humanitarian food assistance (HFA). In May 2021, humanitarian partners provided HFA to 651,867 people in Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces, approximately 87 percent of the initial HRP target.
While agricultural production estimates for the 2020/2021 season are not yet available, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADER) expects a production increase of around 8 percent over last year. This is largely in line with the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), which estimates near-average to above-average production for maize grain. However, in eastern Nampula and eastern Cabo Delgado, agricultural production is expected to be well below average due to below-average rainfall and, particularly in Cabo Delgado, the impact of conflict. Below-average production is also expected in northern Maputo province and the lower Limpopo valley in Gaza due to dry spells at the beginning of the season and flooding in February.
In most markets, the May 2021 maize grain prices decreased between 6 and 23 percent compared to April, driven by improved availability from the harvest. However, maize grain prices had mixed trends compared to respective prices last year and ranged between 6 and 94 percent above the five-year average. However, in Chimoio, the maize grain price in May was more than double last year's prices and the five-year average. Possible causes could include successive price rises over the past three years due to consecutive shocks (mostly floods associated with cyclones) that may have decreased local availability. As typical, maize meal and rice prices were relatively stable from April to May, with mixed trends compared to prices last year and the five-year average.