Mozambique Food Security Outlook: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists into harvest period in the center and south, driven by flood, February - September 2026
From February to May 2026, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in flood- and dryness-affected areas of southern and central Mozambique due to crop losses and below-average purchasing power, with some improvement likely between April and May as harvests begin.Flood damage, poor harvests, limited seeds, degraded soils, and weak labor opportunities are constraining livelihood recovery. A dry spell during critical development stages and above-average food prices, further reduce households’ purchasing power. Households receiving food assistance are expected to face Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes. From June to September, post-flood cultivation is likely to improve access to food, but most affected areas will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
From February to September, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in parts of Cabo Delgado Province and parts of Nampula Province due to ongoing attacks by non-state armed groups (NSAG), driving displacement, restricting movement, and disrupting livelihood activities. Insecurity limits access to land, agricultural inputs, and markets, sustaining below-average production and income. In areas receiving regular food assistance, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected to persist, while in areas less affected by conflict, the main harvest starting in April will likely support Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.
Areas of highest concern include conflict-affected parts of Cabo Delgado, parts of Nampula, and flood-affected southern and central areas.NSAG attacks continue to drive displacement, disrupt livelihoods, damage infrastructure, and limit humanitarian access, while flooding in central and southern areas caused major crop losses, reduced food availability, increased food prices, further worsening food insecurity.
FEWS NET estimates that 3.5-3.99 million people will need humanitarian food assistance during the peak of the February-March 2026 lean season. Needs are driven by January 2026 floods in areas of the southern and central regions, ongoing displacement from conflict in Cabo Delgado and parts of Nampula, and consecutive poor harvests in semi-arid areas.
