Mozambique: Flash Update No.2 – Flooding in Zambézia, Sofala, Tete provinces, As of 8 January 2026 [EN/PT]

Highlights

• Between 24 December and 7 January, heavy rains and floods affected 75,325 people (14,310 families) across Nampula, Niassa, Manica, Sofala, Tete and Zambézia, with 21 deaths reported. Currently, 5,727 people are sheltered in temporary accommodation centres, mainly in Zambézia, with smaller numbers in Niassa and Manica. [INGD, Impact Dashboard, 7 Jan 2026]
• From 8 January 2025, heavy to very heavy rainfall forecast in southern Mozambique is expected to significantly raise river basin levels and increase surface runoff over the next 72 hours. Hydrological authorities warn of a heightened risk of flooding affecting agricultural land, riverside communities, and road infrastructure, particularly in several river basins across Inhambane Province, with possible impacts also extending to Gaza Province.
• In the central provinces of Sofala and Zambézia and Tete, severe weather has caused significant impacts. In Zambézia, at least 10 people were killed and 18 injured due to lightning strikes and house collapses, mainly in Quelimane district. In Maganja da Costa, 4,431 people (1,152 families) are in temporary centres, while 5,203 people were evacuated. In Sofala, river levels in the Búzi and Púnguè basins remain above alert levels, placing 86,528 people at risk and affecting over 50,000 hectares of cropland. In Tete, heavy rainfall and localized flooding affected at least 75 families in Mutarara.
• Government-led early warning, evacuation and response measures are being implemented; however, available stocks and funding remain insufficient to meet needs linked to prolonged displacement and escalating humanitarian requirements.
• Humanitarian partners, including IOM, the Mozambique Red Cross, UNICEF, Plan International and more, are supporting Government-led efforts through joint assessments, distribution of relief items, deployment of mobile teams and pre‑positioning of WASH, shelter and protection supplies across the most affected districts.

Situation Overview

Zambézia Province

From October 2025 to early January 2026, Zambézia province has been significantly affected by heavy rains, strong winds, thunderstorms and localized flooding. The Licungo river basin and low-lying districts — Maganja da Costa, Mocuba, Namacurra, Namarroi, Gurué, Ilé and Quelimane — remain the most exposed.

Lightning strikes have caused at least 10 fatalities and 18 injuries, particularly in Quelimane district. Flooding and wind damage have destroyed houses, forcing evacuations and displacement.

As of 6 January:

• 4,431 people (1,152 families) are hosted in temporary accommodation centres in Maganja da Costa.
• 5,203 people have been relocated from high-risk areas to safer zones within the district.

Forecasts indicate continued rainfall over Licungo Basin, raising the likelihood of further flooding and displacement, especially in Namacurra, Maganja da Costa and Quelimane.

Weather forecasts indicate the continued likelihood of heavy rainfall, which may further exacerbate flooding and displacement, particularly in riverine and coastal districts.

Sofala Province

Recent UNOSAT satellite analysis (5 January 2026) confirms extensive and expanding flooding across Sofala province, with approximately 870 km² of land inundated—an increase of about 100 km² since late December. An estimated 7,300 people are potentially exposed in flood-affected riverine areas. These spatial impacts align with field reports of river levels exceeding alert thresholds in the Búzi and Púnguè basins, rising water levels along the Zambezi River, and recurrent access disruptions along the N280 and N281 roads, including the Guara-Guara–Buzi corridor, significantly constraining humanitarian access and isolating communities.

Hydrological conditions remain critical. The Búzi and Púnguè rivers are above alert levels (Mafambisse: 8.04 m; Estaquinha: 5.00 m), while the Zambezi continues to rise downstream. Overall, an estimated 86,528 people are exposed to flooding risks, including 33,860 in the Búzi Basin and 52,658 in the Púnguè Basin. At least 14 schools and 5 health units are located in flood-risk areas. Displacement continues in low-lying districts, with 7,377 people (2,132 families ) accommodated in centres in Nhamatanda and 2,643 people (543 families ) hosted across eight centres in Buzi.

Flooding has coincided with the main planting season, severely affecting livelihoods and food security. In total, 50,293 hectares of cropland have been affected, impacting 41,251 households, while 11,656 hectares have been completely lost, affecting 9,107 households. The most affected districts are Buzi (33,985 ha), followed by Gorongosa (4,079 ha), Chemba (3,702 ha), and Nhamatanda (3,212 ha). Maize—the most affected crop due to its sensitivity to waterlogging—followed by rice, accounts for the majority of losses; both are staple crops critical to household food security.

Productive assets have also been impacted. Aquaculture and fisheries have suffered losses of fingerlings and damage to ponds and cages, reducing production capacity. Livestock impacts include flooded corrals and submerged pastureland, particularly in Buzi and Nhamatanda districts.

Flooding has affected cropland during a critical planting period. Overall, 50,293 hectares of cropland have been affected, impacting 41,251 households, while 11,656 hectares have been lost, affecting 9,107 households. The most affected districts include Buzi (33,985 ha affected), followed by Gorongosa (4,079 ha), Chemba (3,702 ha), and Nhamatanda (3,212 ha). Maize is the most affected crop, given its high susceptibility to water stress from flooding, followed by rice. Both are staple crops and critical to household food security.

Flooding has also affected aquaculture, with losses of fingerlings and damage to fish ponds and cages reported, reducing productive capacity. Livestock impacts include flooded corrals and submerged pastureland, particularly in Buzi and Nhamatanda districts.

Niassa Province

At least 2,800 people (523 families) have been affected by the persistent heavy rains which triggered flooding and caused extensive damage to 600 homes and agricultural lands in the districts of Lago, Muembe, Marrupa, Chimbunila and Cuamba. Lago district is the most severely impacted with 405 houses either damaged, destroyed or flooded, which has affected 1,815 people (330 families). In addition, 17 water systems were damaged, potentially disrupting access to safe drinking water in a district that has experienced seasonal cases of cholera.

Several neighbourhoods in the provincial capital of Lichinga have been flooded, affecting at least 135 families that had to be relocated. At least 89 people are currently in accommodation centres while 97 people are staying with host families. The provincial government, through INGD, has provided food and NFIs to the affected people in the temporary evacuation centre. There are plans to transfer the IDPs to a transit centre with existing basic services already in place, including piped water and pre-existing sanitation facilities.

Tete Province

Heavy rainfall has persisted across the Zambezi Basin, with cumulative precipitation exceeding 5,000mm during December 2025, more than 80 per cent of which fell in northern districts, particularly the Angónia Plateau. Between 7 and 8 January, rainfall totals reached 60 mm in Cassacatiza, 50.5 mm in Vila Mualazi, and 14 mm in Angónia.

Hydrological conditions along the Zambezi River remain variable, with water levels fluctuating but showing a slight downward trend. The Cahora Bassa reservoir is currently at 29.08 per cent capacity, with outflows of approximately 1,446 m³/s.

Localized flooding was recorded in Mutarara District in December, affecting approximately 75 families, who received immediate food assistance from INGD. However, available food stocks in Mutarara are sufficient to support only 20 families per day, raising concerns should additional flooding occur. In Marara District, strong winds on 4 January destroyed a warehouse at “4 de Outubro” school used for the school feeding programme; stored food commodities were subsequently relocated to the community leader’s residence.

Excessive rainfall continues to threaten agricultural production, particularly in the northern part of the province, where crop losses are anticipated. Despite these impacts, road access across the province remains largely functional at this stage.