Mozambique: Flash Update No.1 - Flooding in Zambézia and Sofala provinces (As of 29 December 2025) [EN/PT]

Highlights

• The Mozambique Institute of Meteorology (INAM) reports that an active low-pressure system over the Mozambique Channel continues to generate heavy rainfall and heightened flood risk across central and northern Mozambique, with greatest concern in Sofala and Zambézia provinces.
• According to the National Directorate for Water Resources Management (DNGRH), the Buzi, Punguè and Licungo river basins are at or above alert levels, with potential for moderate flooding of agricultural land, riverine areas, and settlements along riverbanks.
• An estimated 123,551 people, 16 schools, and 20 health facilities are exposed to potential flood impacts across the Buzi, Punguè and Licungo basins, according to INGD.
• Districts at risk include Buzi, Nhamatanda, Dondo, Muanza and Gorongosa (Sofala), and Namacura and Maganja da Costa (Zambézia).
• According to media reports 16 people were killed in Sofala province, due to weather conditions.
• On 28 December, the Technical Council for Disaster Risk Management (CTGD) activated Government-led anticipatory actions, including early warning dissemination, pre-positioning of relief items, and deployment of emergency teams.
• As of 28 December, about 9,000 people were hosted in 17 temporary accommodation centres across Buzi and Nhamatanda districts.

Situation Overview

According to INAM, a low-pressure system in the Mozambique Channel has a 60 per cent probability of developing into a tropical depression or severe tropical storm in the coming days. The system continues to sustain above-average rainfall across central and northern regions, increasing the risk of flooding in low-lying, riverine and urban areas, particularly in Sofala and Zambézia. [INGD, 27 December 2025]

The National Directorate for Water Resources Management (DNGRH) reports elevated hydrological pressure in key river basins. Water levels in the Buzi and Pungue basins remain above alert thresholds, while the Licungo basin shows oscillating levels with an upward trend [Sofala COE, 26 December 2025]. Authorities warn of moderate flooding of agricultural land, riverine settlements and transport infrastructure. Local media report that more than 10,000 hectares of agricultural land have already been affected in parts of Buzi district, Sofala Province, riverine settlements and transport infrastructure.

Based on current hydrological scenarios and exposure analysis presented to the CTGD, an estimated 123,551 people are at risk across the Buzi, Pungue and Licungo basins: 33,860 in Buzi, 52,658 in Pungue, and 37,033 in Licungo. In addition, 16 schools and 20 health facilities in at-risk areas may face service disruptions if flooding intensifies..[INGD, 27 December 2025]

In Sofala, cumulative rainfall exceeding 300 mm was recorded in parts of Beira and Nova Sofala between 20 and 26 December, increasing surface runoff and downstream flood risk. The most at-risk districts are Buzi, Nhamatanda, Dondo, Muanza and Gorongosa. As of 28 December, more than 9,000 people were hosted in 17 temporary accommodation centres in Buzi and Nhamatanda, though access to several sites remains limited, with boats required to reach some locations.

Health and livelihood impacts are emerging. In Gruja (Sofala Province), the local health facility has been flooded, and services are currently being delivered through temporary tents. Flooding has affected more than 10,000 hectares of agricultural plots (machambas) in Buzi district, raising concerns for livelihoods and food security. Schools have also been affected, though assessments are ongoing.

Movement and access constraints are increasing due to flooding and erosion. Traffic is interrupted on the R564 Gorongosa–Piro road, where a drift at the Mucodza River is submerged; and on the N280 Guaragura–Buzi road, where access to a culvert has been cut and the roadway is submerged at kilometre 11. Conditional traffic is reported on the N261 Nhamapaza–Maringué road, the N282 Dondo–Muanza road, and the R521 Buzi–Estaquinha–Casa Nova road. Traffic has been restored on the R520 Mutindir–Grodja road at kilometre 3 following erosion damage near the Mucumine River bridge. These constraints may limit access to affected communities and hinder response efforts if flooding intensifies.

In Zambézia, authorities report increased flow in the Licungo River, which remains under close monitoring by INGD and partners. Namacura and Maganja da Costa districts are considered most at risk due to riverine flooding. Authorities have also flagged a moderate risk of urban flooding in Quelimane, the provincial capital.