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Mozambique: Ex-tropical cyclone Japhet on land - Update 4 Mar 2003

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Release Date: 04 March 2003: 0800GMT
Ex-cyclone Japhet re-strengthened on the night of 3 March 2003, and the area affected by the cyclone is reported to have been associated with heavy rains. According to an issuance by the La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Center, the center of the ex-cyclone is currently located in an area near the Gutu district in Zimbabwe, as at 0600GMT on 4 March. However, the areas affected by the re-strengthening of the ex-cyclone last night went as far as Vilankulos district in Mozambique (Figure 1). The system is forecast to dissipate within the next 48 hours.



Figure 1. Ex-Cyclone Japhet on 04 March 2003. The satellite image is overlaid by maps of districts and provinces in Mozambique and Zimbabwe. The colored areas show increasing cold cloud intensity (as indicated by the legend), while the grey areas have warm clouds or no clouds. Cold-cloud intensity is often associated with high convective activity, and thus high rainfall activity. The original satellite graphic was sourced from weather.msfc.nasa.gov. The large black and red dot is the current location of the center of the system (as at 0600GMT), while the two red dots, from left to right, are the forecast centers at 1800GMT-04/03/2003, and at 0600GMT-05/03/2003 respectively.

The significant Weather Developments Bulletin is intended to provide timely highlights of developing weather patterns that might pose a threat to human lives and property. While efforts have been made to ensure accuracy of this report, country specific requirements should be addressed to the National Meteorological Services. The RRSU and FEWSNET produce a Situational Regional Floodwatch during the rainy season.

Acknowledgements: The information in this bulletin is derived from an analysis of issuances by the JTWC, La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Centre, and SADC DMC. An analysis of Meteosat satellite imagery, NOAA satellite-derived rainfall estimates, AFWA rainfall forecast models, USGS/FEWS NET water balance and hydrological streamflow models, ground reports, and any other available information is incorporated to estimate ground impacts. USGS/FEWS NET also provides direct input.

The SADC Remote Sensing Unit, P.O. Box 4046, Harare, Zimbabwe.
E-mail: rrsu@fanr-sadc.co.zw
Fax: 263-4-795283