Mozambique – El Niño-induced drought - Flash Update No. 1, As of 18 February 2025 [EN/PT]

HIGHLIGHTS

• Nearly five million people are likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between October 2024 and March 2025. This includes 912,000 people likely to experience IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), a quadrupling of the number since last season. Nearly four million people likely to experience IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
• A total of 391,000 people have received some form of support, including in highly affected areas of Manica and Sofala provinces.
• The drought appeal is facing a significant funding shortfall, with only U $28.7 million (13 per cent of the required $222 million) secured, severely limiting the ability of humanitarian actors to deliver timely and adequate aid.

SITUATION OVERVIEW

The combined results of the October 2024 post-harvest IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis, and the July 2024 post-shock analysis indicate that food insecurity has reached unprecedented levels in Mozambique. A total of 4,890,232 people are projected to be food insecure until the end of the lean season (March 2025), according to the latest IPC Acute Food Insecurity snapshot. Of this, an estimated 912,000 are facing IPC 4 (emergency) levels, while 3,978,314 are at IPC 3 (crisis) levels.

This marks the highest number of food-insecure people ever recorded since IPC assessments began in Mozambique in 2017, underscoring the escalating severity of the drought.

According to IPC’s analysis, the key drivers of food insecurity include climatic shocks, conflict, and high food prices. The El Niño phenomenon severely impacted the 2023/24 rainy and agricultural season, with over 60 districts experiencing cyclones and tropical storms and 37 districts directly impacted by drought. Continued attacks by non-State armed groups contributed to lower productivity. High food prices remain a major barrier for many to access food. By late 2024, maize and millet prices in southern and central markets were higher than they were in late 2023 and above the five-year average.

According to the October 2024 post-harvest IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis, approximately 33 percent of households don’t have maize reserves – particularly in Manica, Sofala and Inhambane – and 70 percent of the population do not have enough maize to cover their needs until the end of the lean season. At least 43 percent of the assessed population presented insufficient levels of food consumption, 9 percent poor food consumption and 34 percent borderline. Half of the households are using multiple negative food-related coping strategies, such as borrowing food or adults skipping meals to feed children.

The provinces of Tete (23 percent), Manica (17 percent), Cabo Delgado and Sofala with 15 percent respectively stand out negatively with a significant proportion of households that are using extreme coping strategies. A total of 29 percent of households reported using regularly negative livelihood related coping strategies to satisfy immediate food needs for their families, depleting their assets and hampering their capacity to cope with future shocks. An alarming situation is observed in Tete and Cabo Delgado with 26 percent of households using crisis and emergency coping strategies.