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Background
Mozambique faces significant exposure to climate shocks, with the agriculture sector particularly vulnerable to droughts, floods, cyclones and other extreme weather events. This vulnerability reflects the ubiquitous reliance on rainfed farming systems and limited climate resilience, and is further aggravated by high levels of poverty. The conflict in the north – which started in 2017 and resulted in enormous population displacement and disruptions to agricultural livelihoods – is compounding the adverse impact of weather shocks.
The agriculture sector currently represents almost a quarter of the total gross domestic product (GDP), a share that has grown slightly in recent years. In 2023, the agriculture sector contributed 24.3 percent to the total GDP, only marginally higher than in 2014 (World Bank, 2024). Food crops account for the vast majority (90 percent) of the agricultural output and agriculture employs more than 70 percent of the national labour force.
In 2023/24, El Niño-induced drought affected the entire cropping season and caused a decline in the national agricultural output, with production losses largely concentrated in central and southern Mozambique. In contrast, the northern region received significant rainfall, which caused flooding in several areas. In April 2024, remote sensing vegetation indicators showed poor vegetation conditions across large areas in central provinces and inland of the southern provinces, reflecting the impact of the hot and dry weather (Figure 1 in the PDF).