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Mozambique continues to experience the severe effects of the strong 2023-2024 El Niño season which brought belowaverage rainfall to southern and central Mozambique and above-average rainfall to the northern regions of the country, severely impacting agriculture and rural livelihoods. Provinces such as Tete, Gaza, Manica, and Inhambane, known for high production and pastoral activities, have seen significant reductions in agricultural output with well below-average harvests compared to last year and the five-year average.
In mid-2024, approximately 690,000 hectares of crops were damaged by the drought (OCHA). This has led to high competition for limited income opportunities and ultimately resulted in food access deficits for many poor and very poor households (FEWS NET, July 2024). The Mozambique National Institute of Statistics' (INE) June 2024 report indicated a steady annual inflation rate of 3%, with significant price increases in education and food and non-alcoholic beverages (Mozambique National Institute of Statistics). From May to June 2024, maize grain prices fluctuated across the country, with notable increases in the central and northern zones due to low supply and drought effects. Prices were 40% higher or more compared to last year and 55% higher than the five-year average, eroding purchasing power and leading to food consumption deficits (Mozambique National Institute of Statistics).
In 2024, approximately 2.7 million people were experiencing crisis levels of food insecurity (IPC3+) due to El Niñoinduced drought. Towards the end of 2024, Mozambique experienced further issues related to food insecurity due to demonstrations related to the electoral period in the country. These contributed to limiting the supply of goods, restricting access to food markets, and increasing food prices. Additionally, compounding impacts of Tropical Storms and Cyclones and flooding in 2024 and 2025 (TS Filipo’24, TC Chido’24, TC Dikeledi‘25; TC Jude’ 25) continued to detrimentally impact communities’ lives and livelihoods. These storms, cyclones, and floods cause significant infrastructural damage and further devastate agricultural lands. While the rainy season has increased some agricultural yields across the region, areas impacted by cyclones, floods, and storms experienced more limited gains (FEWS NET, May 2025). For example, the flooding in 2025 affected communities along the Licungo and Limpopo basins in Gaza and Zambezia provinces, respectively, with over 400,000 people impacted.
By March 2025, approximately 1.9 million people were still experiencing acute food insecurity (FEWS NET, May 2025). The World Bank Food Security Update indicates that food inflation was between 5-30% each month since 2024 through May 2025 (World Bank FS Update). With the new year, the Southern Africa region has reentered the next dry season. According to the NOAA, several countries in the southern region have been experiencing rainfall deficiencies since February, including northeastern South Africa and the southern part of Mozambique, leading to abnormal dryness. With the latest MET Monthly Climate Outlook report indicating that most countries in the region will expect normal or lower than usual rainfall levels and warmer than normal conditions for the period June to August, many countries could be exposed to dry conditions that would affect agriculture, food security and the population’s livelihood.