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Description of the crisis
Mozambique is currently experiencing severe effects from the strong 2023-2024 El Niño season which brought below-average rainfall to southern and central Mozambique and above-average rainfall to the northern regions, severely impacting agriculture and rural livelihoods. Additionally, Tropical Storm Filipo in March 2024 impacted 153,000 people, caused significant infrastructural damage, and further devastated agricultural lands, particularly in regions still reeling from the extensive destruction caused by Tropical Cyclone Freddy in 2023 (OCHA). The compounded effects of these events have severely strained access to basic services and hindered recovery efforts (OCHA).
Provinces such as Tete, Gaza, Manica, and Inhambane, known for high production and pastoral activities, have seen significant reductions in agricultural output with well below-average harvests compared to last year and the five-year average. As of April 2024, approximately 690,000 hectares of crops were damaged (OCHA). This has led to high competition for limited income opportunities and ultimately resulting in food access deficits for many poor and very poor households (FEWS NET, July 2024). The Mozambique National Institute of Statistics' (INE) June 2024 report indicated a steady annual inflation rate of 3%, with significant price increases in education and food and non-alcoholic beverages (Mozambique National Institute of Statistics). From May to June 2024, maize grain prices fluctuated across the country, with notable increases in the central and northern zones due to low supply and drought effects.
Prices were 40% higher or more compared to last year and 55% higher than the five-year average, eroding purchasing power and leading to food consumption deficits (Mozambique National Institute of Statistics). High food prices and low agriculture productivity have continued to worsen the food security in the affected provinces. This exacerbates the impact of the drought in the country, with 2.7 million people experiencing crisis levels of food insecurity (ICP3+) due to El Nino induced drought. According to the July 2024 IPC report, this number was expected to increase between October 2024 and January 2025.(FEWS Net, July 2024))