- The purpose of these Terms of Reference (TOR) is to provide key information to stakeholders about the evaluation, to guide the evaluation team and specify expectations during the various phases of the evaluation. The TOR are structured as follows: section 1 provides information on the context; section 2 presents the rationale, objectives, stakeholders and main users of the evaluation; section 3 presents the WFP portfolio and defines the scope of the evaluation; section 4 identifies the evaluation approach and methodology; section 5 indicates how the evaluation will be organized. The annexes provide additional information.
- Country Strategic Plan Evaluations (CSPEs) encompass the entirety of WFP activities during a specific period. Their purpose is twofold: 1) to provide evaluation evidence and learning on WFP's performance for country-level strategic decisions, specifically for developing the next Country Strategic Plan (CSP) and 2) to provide accountability for results to WFP stakeholders. These evaluations are mandatory for all CSPs and are carried out in line with the WFP Policy on Country Strategic Plan and WFP Evaluation Policy.
1.2. Country Context
Geographic, Demographic and Governance Overview
Mozambique covers an area of 799.380 Km2 and borders Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia,
Zimbabwe, South Africa, and eSwatini. The national territory is divided into 10 provinces and one Capital City with provincial status, 152 districts, 436 administrative posts and 1,217 localities. It is a republic and a multiparty democracy, with an executive president as head of state and government, who is directly elected for a five-year term and serves a maximum of two terms. He or she appoints the prime minister and Council of Ministers. General elections were held in Mozambique on 15 October 2019. Incumbent president Filipe Nyusi of FRELIMO was re-elected with 73% of the vote.
According to the Census1 conducted in 2017, the country has a population of almost 28 million people (27,909,798), of which 52% are women and 66% live and work in rural areas. The total population has grown by 27,9% compared to the previous census (2007) and the annual growth rate is currently estimated at 2,8%. Total fertility rate is 5.2, with no significant variations from 2007. Adolescence birth rate declined from 167 in 2010 to 148.6 in 2017 but is still much higher than the average for the East and Southern Africa region, which is 93. Maternal mortality rates are also quite high at 451,6 per a hundred thousand live births. Life expectancy at birth is 51 years for men and 56.5 for women. Almost half of the population (46.6%) is constituted by children below 14 years, while 3.3% is above 65. Economically active population is 53.7% and the demographic dependency ratio is 99.5.
There has been progress in the number of AIDS-related deaths since 2010. However, in 2018 the prevalence of HIV was still 12.6 percent, one of the highest in the world, and women were disproportionally affected by HIV: out of the 2 million adults living with HIV, 1,2 (60%) were women.
Macroeconomic Overview, Poverty and Inequality
The economy of Mozambique is largely driven by the primary sector, mostly agriculture and fisheries that constituted 25% of GDP in 2018 and absorbed 66.8% of the work force in 2017, but the country is a net food importer, with 5% of total imports in 2016. Since 2010, the extractives industries have been playing an increasingly important role in the country’s economy, reaching 6.9% of GDP in 2016 (from about 2% in 2010). The Services sector’s contribution to GDP increased from 54.2% in 2000 to 55.4% in 2016 on the back of public sector expansion, increased urban consumption and services to megaprojects.
Mozambique's real GDP growth was estimated to drop to 3.5 percent in 2018. The ADB explains that this dramatic decline was the result of decreased public investment and a 23 percent decrease in foreign direct investment from 2015 to 2017 triggered by the impact of undisclosed debts. The government’s eventual disclosure, in 2016, of more than US$ 1 billion debt in secret led the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and major donors to freeze or reduce aid to the country, forcing the government to implement austerity measures to reduce its public debt (ADB, 2019).
The decreased public investment and foreign direct investment led to a series of austerity measures to government budget affecting many public sectors in the country particularly linked to food and nutrition security related programmes. A recent IMF forecast, however, stipulates that Mozambique’s real GDP growth is expected to jump to 11.1 percent by 2023 due to the anticipated start of natural gas exploration in the north of the country.
Mozambique is a low-income country with a Gross National Income per capita of USD 460.
In the 2019 Human development index it ranked 180st out of 188 countries. Despite an average annual real GDP growth above 7% for the last two decades, poverty is still pervasive while inequality is increasing, as illustrated by the deteriorating trend of the Gini coefficient over the last 13 years from 0.4 (1996) to 0.47 (2015) and 0.54 (2019). The headcount poverty ratio fell from 60.3 percent in 2002/03 to 58.7% percent in 2008/09, but in 2014/15 was still to 48.4 percent in 2014/15. As illustrated in table 1, poverty rates are significantly higher in rural areas, where the majority of the population lives.