Mozambique: Anticipatory Action and Early Response Framework - Cyclones (As of 9 January 2025)

1.Executive Summary

This document presents the framework for anticipatory action (AA) and early response (ER) in Mozambique, including the trigger, the pre-agreed action plan and the pre-arranged financing.

The context: Mozambique is regularly impacted by cyclones, especially in the low-lying coastal areas that are home to a majority of the population. Since 2017 alone, some 5 million people have been affected, mostly in the provinces of Zambezia, Nampula and Sofala. Moreover, cyclones are the natural hazard with the greatest attributable economic losses. Since 2000, Mozambique has been impacted by a major tropical cyclone every other year on average. The cyclones that hit the Mozambican coast are increasing in number and intensity(1) .

The objective: This framework seeks to provide coordinated anticipatory action and early response to people at risk of or affected by cyclones in Mozambique. The initiative provides life-saving assistance to people across six provinces: Cabo Delgado, Nampula, Zambezia, Sofala, Inhambane, and Gaza, with AA being implemented in selected pilot districts.

The development process: The framework was developed through a participatory process led by the Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator and coordinated by OCHA Mozambique in collaboration with the national technical working group on anticipatory action.

The trigger

The financing and activities included in this framework will be triggered by either the following readiness trigger, action trigger or observational trigger.

• Readiness trigger (lead time up to 120 hours before landfall):
  • The readiness trigger is using the same conditions defined for the action trigger (see below) but is considering forecasts with lead times between 72 and 120 hours.
• Action trigger (lead time between 72 and 6 hours before landfall):
  • The exposed area corresponding to a severe tropical storm of at least 89km/h overlaps with at least one of these districts: Angoche, Maganja Da Costa, Machanga or Govuro OR
  • The exposed area corresponding to a tropical cyclone of at least 119km/h overlaps with at least one of these districts: Mogincual, Namacurra, Dondo, Cidade Da Beira, Buzi or Vilankulo.
• Observational trigger (from landfall up to 48 hours after landfall):
  • Forecasts issued around landfall indicate that landfall will be within the selected provinces and the intensity at landfall will be at least a tropical cyclone of 119km/h OR
  • The sum of rainfall within a given province the days before, of and after landfall (sum of rainfall over 3 days) around the landfall location exceeds 120 mm.
  • If the observational rainfall trigger is reached only, either the HC or the CERF secretariat can stop an activation within 48 hours of landfall, should they determine that available information indicates that the humanitarian impact is not severe to an extent that justifies a CERF allocation.
• Partners also agreed to conform with the government-mandated cut-off time of 6 hours before landfall for the action trigger to protect humanitarian personnel and people targeted. This means, if an action trigger is reached at any time during the 6 hours before expected landfall, the framework will not be activated, and no activities will be implemented.

The action plan

• The framework will enable agencies to implement both anticipatory and early response activities in a coordinated manner. The pre-agreed actions will focus on the following core objectives:
• Communicating risks, engaging with communities, and early warning messaging: Partners will collaborate to disseminate joint early warning signals as well as sector-specific messaging, including on people’s rights to safe and free assistance.
• Supporting people in temporary accommodation centers (TACs): Partners will ensure TACs are prepared, and people receive food, WASH and other assistance.
• Providing in-kind assistance: A set of in-kind assistance activities such as the provision of shelter kits, dignity kits and hygiene and water treatment products. • Facilitating access to services: The framework supports access to health, gender-based violence (GBV), child protection, and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) services.

Early response activities were selected based on experience from previous cyclone responses, operational capacity and the ability to deliver within a short period of time after the shock manifests. The implementation of the early response activities as part of this framework should not exceed 2-4 weeks after landfall.

The financing

The Emergency Relief Coordinator (ERC) has pre-arranged up to $6 million from the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) to support the present framework. The funding will allow partners to provide assistance in the Food Security ($1.58M), WASH ($1.3M), Shelter ($1.25M), Health ($700k), Sexual and Reproductive Health ($364k), CCCM ($350k), GBV ($336k), Child Protection ($100k), and Logistics ($20k) sectors and areas of responsibilities. In addition, based on the given activation scenario, WFP commits up to USD 979,000 from its dedicated anticipatory action trust fund for the 2024/2025 season. Funding tranches for readiness, anticipatory action and early response are tied to the different triggers.

The learning

The present framework offers important learning opportunities. Partners have agreed to conduct a joint post-distribution monitoring exercise in the case of a framework activation. In addition, an after-action review will be conducted to gather lessons learned from the development and potential implementation of the framework. Partners also commit to engage in more comprehensive learning efforts in the future.