Attachments
Executive Summary
The rise of jihadi insurgency in Mozambique’s northern province of Cabo Delgado is attributed to multidimensional causes: social and economic factors, influence of radical preachers and endogenous process of extremism advancement in the province. It is worth mentioning that the insurgents aspire to establish a political order of Sharia rule. However, the causes for this violent movement relate to weak public services, poverty, unemployment, corruption and youth radicalization by foreign and national preachers.
While the insurgents grow in strength, confidence and operational capacity, the state-armed and intelligence forces are poorly structured and illprepared to lead small, rapid and well-resourced special counter-insurgency units and Navy to challenge the group. Hence, a multidimensional solution should be attained by including all transnational and strategic actors operating in Cabo Delgado.
Key Points
• Mozambique’s state forces are powerless to root out jihadi insurgents in the province of Cabo Delgado. Since the beginning of the terrorist attacks in the district of Mocímboa da Praia, 798 “organized violent events” including kidnapping, demonstration, etc. have taken place across the whole country. According to the ACLED report, the “total number of fatalities from organised violence and civilian targeting” in Cabo Delgado was 2,614 and 1,312 respectively during the time between October 2017 and February 2021. This crisis derails the government’s defence and security forces resolution to defeat the insurgents and retake the towns they occupied.
• The root causes of the jihadi insurgency are multidimensional.
• Securing natural gas and oil infrastructures is as important as the need to keep stable government institutions and a functional state system.
• The solution to the jihadi insurgency crisis requires sitting around a table of all concerned actors from Mozambique; SADC’s Organ on politics, defence and security; Eastern Africa Standby Forces; ECOWAS; the USA; the UK; EU countries and Saudi Arabia.
• SADC’s most recent Extraordinary Troika Summit in Botswana acknowledged the rising of insurgency and terrorism activities in the region, but fell short of providing a joint defence and security strategy to curb Islamism violence.