The Humanitarian Impacts of El Niño in Southern Africa - September 2024

Southern Africa has experienced the worst impacts of the 2023-2024 El Niño and is facing the risk of a deepening and widespread hunger crisis. Many parts of Southern Africa have endured the worst mid-season dry spell in over 100 years, marred by the lowest mid-season rainfall in 40 years. These El Niño-induced weather events have led to widespread crop failure, water shortages and livestock deaths. More than half of the annual harvest has been destroyed, leading to rapidly depleting stocks and increasing food prices.

KEY MESSAGES

• Six countries declared a state of emergency due to the El Niño-induced severe drought. Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe have declared drought a state of emergency, while El Niño conditions have also caused heavy rains and flooding in parts of Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi and Zambia.

• The drought has led to a surge in displacement, disease outbreaks and food shortages, negatively impacting national economies. The severe impacts of the El Niño-induced drought are unfolding in a context of pre-existing vulnerabilities, driven by socioeconomic challenges, high food prices, a protracted cholera epidemic, an Mpox outbreak and the compounding impacts of the climate crisis.

• In the drought-affected countries in Southern Africa, needs are assessed to be 50 per cent higher than the 2016/2017 season, with nearly 3 times more people affected compared to the last severe El Niño in 2016. Some 61 million people need assistance, including 7.6 million in Zimbabwe, 6.6 million in Zambia, 6.1 million in Malawi, 2.8 million in Madagascar and 1.8 million in Mozambique. More than 20 million of these people are experiencing crisis-level hunger, corresponding to 10 per cent of the total population in the region.

• A peak in nutrition treatment admissions for wasting has been registered in Zambia, Angola, Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique and is projected to continue through the first quarter of 2025. More than 3.9 million children in El Niñoaffected countries are experiencing wasting and 1.1 million are estimated to be affected by severe wasting.

• Livestock and wildlife are also impacted with over 9,000 drought-related cattle deaths. The deaths were reported in Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe between October 2023 and February 2024. As a result, families have been forced to sell their remaining livestock at extremely reduced rates, leading to financial loss and increasing poverty. In addition, some Governments have resorted to drastic action, including killing wild animals to provide food assistance as part of drought relief programmes.

• The drought is heightening the risk of diseases, as the region is grappling with various epidemics. Major diseases such as Mpox, cholera and measles continue to threaten millions of people. Additionally, the drought came at a time when the region was grappling with one of the worst cholera epidemics in decades and as measles are reported to be increasing in Malawi and Mozambique. Although the situation has relatively ‘stabilized’, water shortages continue to undermine hygiene and sanitation efforts.

• Water scarcity is projected to deteriorate further before the onset of the rainy season, resulting in increasing protection concerns. With increased pressure on the water supply, a high rate of borehole breakdowns is expected. This will force more women and girls to walk longer distances in search of water, heightening the risk of gender-based violence (GBV). Also, the low levels of hydropower dams are leading to prolonged power cuts, further straining local economies.

• Diminished crop production and soaring food prices have already subjected many families to severe stress, forcing some to adopt negative survival mechanisms, which particularly affect women and girls. This includes transactional sex, which increases the risk of HIV infection and forced marriages. For children, the increased risk of family separations, school dropout, child labour, neglect and child marriage are of concern.

• La Niña conditions are predicted to emerge toward the end of 2024 (October 2024-February 2025). In the southern African Region, La Niña episodes often lead to above-average rainfall, which can cause flooding in some areas, soil erosion and an increased risk of landslides. While this can be positive for the replenishment of water resources, above normal precipitation can also disrupt agricultural activities and impact infrastructure and properties. The impact of El Niño is projected to linger beyond the main agricultural season, driving high humanitarian food assistance needs until March next year when the 2024/25 harvest begins. Additionally, there is a high risk of locust invasions beginning in October 2024, particularly in Madagascar, and the likelihood of La Niña conditions could result in more intense rainfall and cyclones and therefore increase the potential threat of the locust.

• Humanitarian partners are scaling up response amid limited resources. OCHA supported the launch of Flash Appeals in four El Niño-affected countries, including Malawi (US$137 million), Zambia ($228 million), Zimbabwe ($429 million) and Mozambique ($222 million), aiming to reach a total of 14.5 million people in need. Also, humanitarian partners together with RIASCO have scaled up advocacy efforts to mobilise resources and secure more funding including through the joint call to action to respond to the El Niño-induced drought, and high-level and bilateral meetings with donors.

• Since December 2023, the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) has allocated $27.5 million for the drought response in Southern Africa, including $4 million to Madagascar, $8 million to Zimbabwe, $2 million to Malawi, $3 million to Angola, $5.5 million to Zambia, $3 million to Namibia and $2 million to Lesotho. In addition, innovative disaster financing mechanisms such as the African Risk Capacity (ARC)’s drought insurance, has resulted in payouts to Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe totalling $53.7 million.

• The funding outlook remains grim. All flash appeals are less than 18 per cent funded as of mid-September. It is critical that life-saving efforts are implemented alongside climate adaptation and resilience measures to protect development gains.

• Flash Appeals contribute to resilience support. The importance of complementing resilience with life-saving activities is reflected in each of the Flash Appeals for Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe underscoring the importance placed on empowering local communities to better resist future crisis and more rapidly rebound. For example:

• In Malawi, resilience activities covered a diverse range of sectors across agriculture, health, protection, and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) including projects aimed at strengthening the capacity of staff in mobile health clinics, rehabilitating water points and raising awareness among community members about protection from sexual exploitation and abuse (PSEA) reporting tools;
• In Mozambique, resilience-focused interventions in the Food and Security, Protection and WASH sectors were included in activities such as awareness raising of GBV prevention, the provision of drought-tolerant seeds and rehabilitating boreholes;
• Similarly, in Zambia, projects focused on resilience in the Agriculture, Education and Health sectors including activities geared towards supporting teachers, strengthening irrigation systems and building the capacity of health workers;
• In Zimbabwe, resilience projects covering an array of sectors including Education, Food Security, Health, Nutrition and WASH were incorporated focusing on ensuring children can continue schooling during the drought, strengthening access to local markets and improving access to critical WASH services to reduce morbidity and mortality from diarrheal disease.

FACTS AND FIGURES

Lesotho

• On average, agricultural production in Lesotho has decreased by one third, reaching the lowest levels since 2018 and 2019

• Nearly a third of the population – or 700,000 people – are facing food insecurity in the coming months.

Namibia

• At least 84 per cent of food reserves are already exhausted and nearly half of the population is expected to experience high levels of food insecurity between July and September.

• All 14 regions of the country are impacted, largely because of El Niño dry conditions and there has been a 53 per cent decline in food production and a nearly 70 per cent reduction in dam water levels.

Zambia

• Over 9 million people have been affected by the dry spell in 84 out of the 117 districts. By June this year, Zambia recorded a nationwide spike in severe acute malnutrition cases compared to the same period in 2022 and 2023.

Zimbabwe

• More than half of the harvest has been destroyed because of a historic drought induced by El Niño, threatening 7.6 million people with acute hunger. Some 5.9 million people in rural areas and 1.7 million people in urban areas may face acute hunger in the coming lean period (January to March) until the next harvest in April 2025.