Summary
The 2000/01 agricultural season has started in the southern region of Mozambique. Normally, the agricultural season starts in the southern region and moves northwards with rains from October to November. Above-normal rains fell in the southern region provinces of Inhambane, Gaza and Maputo where farmers in several districts have begun planting groundnuts and maize.
Good progress has been made in supplying seeds to an estimated 186,000 small farmers in central and southern Mozambique who, due to poverty and poorly developed rural markets, did not have adequate seeds for the season. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADER) reports that 657 MT of rice, 1,236 MT of maize, 586 MT of cowpeas, 261 MT of sorghum, 130 MT of millet, and 833 MT of groundnuts were distributed as seeds to 100,000 farmers to date.
The National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) organized a Climate Outlook Forum on September 22, where it presented two different rainfall forecasts, the first covering October, November and December (OND) 2000 and the second covering January, February and March (JFM) 2001. These forecasts were developed separately for the southern, central and northern regions.
Enhanced probabilities of above-normal rainfall during OND could be beneficial for the northern region but detrimental for the central and southern regions where most of ground remains saturated from the devastating floods of January-March this year. In addition, the JFM rainfall forecast indicates above-normal to normal rainfall conditions. If these forecasts prove true, they could mean a slow down in the post-flood reconstruction, an outbreak of malaria, cholera and livestock diseases, and too much water for certain crops such as cowpeas, groundnuts, and cassava.
Livestock enjoy good pasture and water conditions in southern Mozambique where above-normal rains fell in the last two dekads (10-day periods) of September.
Chicualacuala and Massagena Districts (Gaza Province) remain under surveillance due to their slow recovery from the floods and possible food insecurity. WFP, the government and NGOs (Caritas and World Vision) are distributing free food aid to the affected population and highly energy biscuits to children.
Markets are working reasonably well in the country, including the formerly flooded provinces (Maputo, Gaza, Inhambane, Sofala and Manica) where roads once again link most markets. September-October is the peak trading period for maize.
The Intersectoral Vulnerability Assessment Group has identified about 160,000 people living in 37 districts as food insecure for the consumption year 2000/01 (April-March). These food insecure people are classified into three categories, extremely, highly and moderate food insecure. The Intersectoral Vulnerability Assessment report for 2000/01 recommends that:
- WFP and the National Institute for Disaster Management (INGC) jointly assess food needs in the sole extremely food insecure district, Chokwe (Gaza Province) as well as in the 12 highly food insecure districts;
- WFP and NGOs carry out food for work programs in the 24 moderately food insecure districts; and
- MADER distribute seeds and tools in all the food insecure districts.
The INGC and UN agencies recently held a workshop on "Lessons Learned from the 2000 Floods" where the whole rescue operation was evaluated and recommendations for coordination and responses in future emergencies were formulated.
1. Food Security Outlook
Food security is built on three components: satisfactory food availability, food access and food utilization. Nationally, the food security situation is good due to the abundant availability of food. Projected maize supplies will be sufficient to meet needs from September to almost the very end of the 2000/01 marketing year. Thereafter, newly harvested maize will replenish supplies.
Yet, not all the population has access to enough nutritious food to meet dietary needs and preferences for an active life. The Intersectoral Vulnerability Assessment Group has identified 37 districts, of 135 districts in the country, where an "average" person is food insecure during the current consumption year 2000/01 (April-March). The Working Group classified the population in Chokwe District (Gaza Province) as extremely food secure, mainly because about 70% of the household food reserves were washed away during the heavy floods earlier this year. In addition, the population in 12 districts was classified as highly food secure, and the population in 24 districts as moderately food insecure. Those living in extremely and highly food insecure districts need food aid whereas those in moderately food insecure districts need food for work interventions where development of community infrastructure and assets is the major goal (Section 4).
2. National Overview
2.1. Rainfall Forecasts and their Implications for Agriculture
Reports from the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) show very low precipitation for this time of year, especially in the northern and central regions of the country. In contrast, Maputo, parts of Gaza and Inhambane Provinces experienced above-normal rainfall during the second and third dekads of September. Despite the saturation of the soil in these provinces due to the widespread flooding earlier this year, no new major flooding problems were observed.
INAM organized a Climate Outlook Forum on September 22, the first meeting of the season with the users of meteorological data, where it presented different forecasts for two periods. The first period covers October, November and December (OND) 2000 and the second period covers January, February and March (JFM) 2001. The weather forecasts were presented separately for the southern, central and northern regions, as shown in Map 1.
There are several implications for the OND rainfall forecast, if the probabilities prove true. First, the enhanced probabilities of above-normal or normal rainfalls in the southern and central regions would heighten the risk of floods in some low-lying areas where soils remain saturated from the massive flooding earlier this year.
Second, there is a 45-50% probability of normal rainfall from October to December. Depending on their spatial and temporal distribution, these normal rains could contribute to good crop performance in the northern maize-growing region of the country, particularly in Mecula and Erati Districts (Cabo Delgado Province) where erratic rainfall negatively affected crop performance during the 1999/2000-production year.
The forecast probabilities for the JFM period are similar to those for OND, although this second forecast could have different seasonal implications. The enhanced probabilities of above-normal and normal rainfall in the southern and central regions could slow post-flood recovery and reconstruction activities or lead to outbreaks of malaria, cholera or livestock diseases. Too much rainfall late in the growth cycle could damage certain crops (such as cowpeas, groundnuts and cassava) and reduce yields and quality — and hence, sales volume and income for farm households. Fortunately, the forecast of near-normal rainfall in the northern region is likely to be conducive to good harvests there.
2.2. Agricultural Prospects and Conditions
The agricultural season starts first in the south and then moves northward with the rains during October and early November. Although land preparation is still underway in several districts in the southern region of the country, planting has started in the Inhambane, Gaza and Maputo Provinces as result of above-normal rainfall in the second and third dekads of September. The provincial Directors of Agriculture report that farmers have mainly planted groundnuts, but in some areas of Maputo Province (for example, Marracuene, Moamba, and Boane Districts) farmers have also planted maize.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADER) declared October 16 - World Food Day - as the official opening date of 2000/01 agricultural season. Good progress has been made in supplying seeds to an estimated 186,000 small farmers in central and southern Mozambique who, due to poverty and poorly developed rural markets, did not have adequate seeds for the coming season. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADER) reports that 657 MT of rice, 1,236 MT of maize, 586 MT of cowpeas, 261 MT of sorghum, 130 MT of millet, and 833 MT of groundnuts were distributed as seeds to 100,000 farmers to date. The remaining group will also benefit from a free food distribution while waiting for seeds.
2.3. Livestock and Pasture Conditions
Livestock enjoy good pasture and water conditions in southern Mozambique where above-normal rains fell in the last two dekads (10-day periods) of September. Moreover, there are no major diseases or pests affecting the livestock.
The National Directorate of Livestock (DINAP) of MADER has enough vaccination stocks for rabies, which is a recurrent problem in cattle. DINAP is organizing a vaccination campaign to that will start in late October or early November in the southern areas of Mozambique.
3. Maize Availability and Access
3.1. Maize Availability
White maize grain (WMG) continues to be readily available in the country. Maize stocks stood at 664,000 MT at the beginning of September with another 220,000 MT expected from production. In comparison, monthly requirements (human consumption, seeds and losses) only reached 125,000 MT. Total supplies based on stocks, production and net imports are projected to exceed demand until near the end of the marketing year in April (Figure 1) when newly harvested maize will replenish supplies.
3.2. Market Conditions, Maize Prices and Access
Markets are working reasonably well in the country, including the formerly flooded provinces (Maputo, Gaza, Inhambane, Sofala and Manica) where roads once again link most markets. The Ministry of Industry and Commerce through the National Directorate of Internal Commerce (MIC/DNCI) states that September-October is the peak trading period for maize.
Looking at the latest available price information, retail prices of white maize grain (MZMT/Kg) sent mixed signals in August compared with July, climbing 24% in Beira but falling 20% in Xai-xai and Lichinga. Prices in central and northern region markets (Chimoio, Tete, Nampula and Pemba) were relatively stable.
Figure 2 shows that August 2000 prices were higher in the flood-affected markets of Maputo, Xai-xai and Maxixe than pre-flood August 1999 prices. In comparison, August 2000 prices were lower in the central and northern region markets of Tete, Nampula, Pemba and Lichinga than August 2000 prices. One explanation is that the northern region, in particular, faces a second consecutive year without a good outlet for its maize surpluses. Given the lack of markets and good WMG production in the northern region, an appropriate step would be for agricultural extension services and trader agents to advise farmers to diversify their crops and improve food variety by planting less maize this year, thereby possibly improving prices.
Maize access generally remains good in the country and prices are affordable. Food access has improved in Gaza Province and particularly in Chicualacuala and Massagene Districts where an integrated approach (distribution of free food aid and highly energy biscuits for children) implemented by WFP, the government and the NGOs, Caritas and World Vision, has helped nearly 18,000 food insecure people.
4. Current Food Security Status and Future Prospects for Mozambique
In mid-September the Intersectoral Vulnerability Assessment Group (composed by MADER, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Plan and Finance, INGC, FEWS NET, WFP, and MSF-CIS) released the results of its analysis of food security, by district (Map 2), for the 2000/01 consumption year (April-March). About 160,000 people living in 37 districts are considered food insecure. They do not have enough food reserves or means to acquire food to cover their food needs through March 2001. These food insecure people are classified into three categories, extremely, highly and moderate food insecure (the number of people in each category is not yet estimated). The rest of the population resides in districts considered food secure, located mostly in upland areas that are highly productive and have a low exposure to environmental hazards, such as flooding or drought.
The Intersectoral Vulnerability Assessment report for 2000/01 recommends that:
- WFP and the National Institute for Disaster Management (INGC) jointly assess food needs in the sole extremely food insecure district, Chokwe (Gaza Province) as well as in the 12 highly food insecure districts (Buzi, Chicualacuala, Chibuto, Guija, Govuro, Inhassoro, Mabalane, Machanga, Machaze, Magoe, Manhiça and Matutuine);
- WFP and NGOs carry out food for work programs in the 24 moderately food insecure districts; and
- MADER distribute seeds and tools in all the food insecure districts.
Over 3,700 MT of food were delivered during the month of September to the five southern and central provinces affected by the floods. The food pipeline is secure until early October, although some foods are in short supply. WFP now expects to get new deliveries of staples such as beans, milk, and maize soon. WFP will continue to focus on recovery programs, particularly in the extremely and highly food insecure districts identified by the Intersectoral Vulnerability Assessment Group.
5. Conclusions and Lessons Learned from the 2000 Floods
The National Institute for Disaster Management (INGC) and UN agencies jointly organized a two-day workshop on "Lessons to be learned from the 2000 floods" with the objective of analyzing the overall success of the rescue and relief operations undertaken by the government and donors.
The prompt arrival of helicopters from the South African National Defense Force (SANDF) and the use of boats facilitated the start of the rescue operations and the delivery of food and relief supplies to parts of Maputo, Gaza, Inhambane, Sofala and Manica provinces that were inaccessible by road. In addition, national NGOs participated fully in the emergency and relief operations. The workshop recognized the valuable work of various civil society groups in Mozambique, private initiatives and public services like the fire brigade, the army and the police. Yet, the workshop acknowledged that there was a clear need to select and train key people who can provide specialized assistance in future emergencies.
The INGC presence outside Maputo appeared to have made only a modest contribution to the flood response management operation. Few INGC delegates made regular visits to the more than 100 accommodation centers set up to provide shelter and refuge to an estimated displaced population of 650,000.
Local and district authorities from among the displaced communities took an active leadership role in the organization of these accommodation centers. With the help of NGOs and international agencies, these local leaders organized food distributions, water rations, vaccinations, latrine digging and enforced public health standards.
The lack of timely and accurate communication - within the entire information network and between networks and decision makers - was identified as one weak point in managing the disaster. In this regard, the United Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordination Team is working with the INGC to establish sectoral committees with representation of ministries, donors, and international agencies. These committees will deal with food, health, water and sanitation, agriculture, shelter, and non-food items, and information. They will become the main points of contact for information sharing between partner agencies. It is expected that these sectoral committees will help forge links between different partners and coordinate the flow and sharing of information. It is likely that the UN Disaster Team may become a more permanent component within the INGC.
Readers are invited to visit www.fews.net to read the full (PDF) version of these country and regional Food Security Updates