Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET February 7 – February 13, 2013

from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 06 Feb 2013 View Original
  • Light rains across southern Mozambique provide relief to extremely saturated and flood-affected regions.

  • Torrential rains across northern Mozambique and eastern Madagascar cause flooding

1) During late January, several weeks of enhanced precipitation has led to flooding, and elevated river levels in the Zambezi, Busi, and Pungue Rivers of Mozambique. Locally heavy rains are forecast across parts of Zambia, Malawi and northern Mozambique during the next seven days. With above-average ground moisture in place, this increases the risk for flooding in the region during the upcoming outlook period.

2) Extreme rainfall along the Limpopo River during the second dekad of January has resulted in damages to infrastructure and crops, thousands of displaced people, and numerous fatalities in the region. A second week of relief to heavy rains is expected over much of South Africa, Zimbabwe and southern Mozambique; however any additional precipitation may trigger additional flooding and exacerbate ground conditions.

3) As a result of the passage of Tropical Cyclone Felleng, flooding and weekly rainfall accumulations greater than 200mm have caused very saturated conditions across eastern Madagascar. Forecasts for the next week indicate a second week of above-average and heavy rains for eastern and central Madagascar which will keep flooding risks elevated.