Anticipatory Action - Activations in Southern Africa: July 2023 - December 2025 (as of December 2025)

Click here to access the interactive Activations in Southern Africa: July 2023 - December 2025

Southern Africa AA Activation Dashboard – Six Key Messages

1. The evidence is clear, now it's time to scale

Since July 2023, anticipatory action has reached 3 million people across 8 countries, with US$ 65 million disbursed through 39 organizations. The evidence is well documented: conservative estimates from the 2023–2024 El Niño drought show anticipatory investments yielded a 30 per cent net benefit over traditional response, and reached populations at risk 6 to 10 months earlier than the El Niño response interventions, reducing negative coping mechanisms before they took hold. Yet, despite growing proof of impact and increasing use of predictive analytics, pre-agreed plans and pre-arranged financing, operations have not reached transformative scale. Fragmentation, uneven adoption and insufficient financing continue to limit the full potential of anticipatory action in the region.

2. Integration is the missing link between projects and systems

Sustainable anticipatory action requires embedding AA into national Disaster Risk Management and Financing frameworks - mandating anticipatory roles, permitting ex-ante use of public funds under pre-agreed triggers, and bridging the disconnect between national and local risk governance. The November 2025 Regional AA After Action Review called on governments to clarify responsibilities at every level and ensure AA is strategically led nationally while fully operationalized locally. The 39 organizations delivering AA across the region provide a strong foundation; what is needed now is the institutional architecture to sustain and scale it.

3. Pre-arranged, flexible financing is the engine of anticipatory action

Without financing committed before a shock strikes, AA stalls at planning. The US$ 65 million disbursed since July 2023, led by the WFP HQ Trust Fund (US$ 23 million), CERF (US$ 18 million), and Start Network (US$9 million), demonstrates the diversity of financing mechanisms driving anticipatory action across the region, with pooled funds like CERF playing a particularly critical role in enabling fast, flexible disbursement. For example, in early 2025, CERF released funds in just 13 minutes ahead of Tropical Cyclone Jude's landfall in Mozambique.

As the approach expands, partners and governments must strengthen risk-layered financing systems that connect humanitarian, development, and disaster‑risk financing tools, ensuring coherence between AA, contingency funds, insurance mechanisms, and social protection programmes. This requires diversifying funding sources further, including climate finance and private sector capital, so that anticipatory and early action becomes the norm rather than the exception.

4. Strong early warning systems are indispensable for timely and effective action

Southern Africa's hazard profile is extremely diverse: activations have spanned drought (US$ 42.1 million), cyclones (US$ 8.5 million), floods (US$4.1 million), disease outbreaks, pests, conflict, and electoral violence. This complexity demands harmonized, impact-based triggers and forecasting systems accessible at the community level, not just to national agencies. National meteorological and hydrological services remain underfunded across the region. Strengthening hydrometeorological infrastructure, open data standards, and inter-operable early warning systems across the region is foundational to making anticipatory action work for the communities that need it most.

5. Anticipatory action is feasible and urgently needed in complex and fragile settings

Nearly 40 per cent of all AA activations globally in 2024 took place in fragile and conflict-affected countries, and Southern Africa reflects this acutely, with DRC activations spanning floods and disease outbreaks across health, protection, and WASH sectors. Challenges around data gaps, access, and administrative barriers remain significant, and while early experiences with local partnerships, flexible financing, open-source forecasting tools, and conflict-sensitive design are promising, continued investment and learning will be essential to operating effectively in the region's most complex settings.

6. Localization and community leadership unlock the full value of anticipatory action

Anticipatory action only delivers when it is locally owned, community-informed, and designed with, not just for, the people most at risk. The 2025 AAR emphasized the varied roles of communities and local actors in enabling effective adaptation, preparedness and early action. Across Southern Africa, local actors, including national NGOs, local authorities and community-based structures, are playing a growing role in delivering early warning messages, implementing pre-agreed actions, monitoring impact and strengthening feedback loops. Advancing this requires long-term partnerships, effective community feedback mechanisms, and financing that progressively shifts leadership and resources to local and national actors.