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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Prolonged drought significantly affected 2024 cereal production and delayed start of 2025 season
- Cereal import requirements 2024/25 forecast at above-average level
- Food price inflation eased in 2024
Prolonged drought significantly affected 2024 cereal production and delayed start of 2025 season
Cereal production in 2024 is estimated about 3.3 million tonnes, over 40 percent below-average. According to official data, wheat production is estimated at 2.5 million tonnes, a record low level in more than fifteen years, driven by drought conditions from February until early March, with cumulative rainfall amounts at over 70 percent below- average coupled with high temperatures.
Last October, at the start of the 2025 season, the government increased the subsidies on wheat and barley seeds, lowering their prices by 5 and 3 percent, respectively, compared to the previous year, making seeds more accessible with the aim to encourage farmers to expand planted areas. However, planting of the 2025 winter crop was delayed due to the prolonged drought caused by low precipitation during rainy season in February and March, extended by the dry season from May to September. Additionally, below-average cumulative rainfall in November and December hindered land preparation. This marks the second consecutive year of drought in the country, further challenging farmers with limited planting opportunities and high input costs. Final yields will highly depend on the rain amounts in February and March 2025.
Cereal import requirements 2024/25 forecast at above-average level
Cereal import requirements for the marketing year 2024/25 (July/June) are anticipated to reach more than 11 million tonnes, about 30 percent above average, considering the poor 2024 harvest. The regular government subsidy measure , effective from January 1 to April 30, 2025, aims to stabilize prices of soft wheat, limiting inflationary pressure and increasing stock availability for bread production.
Food price inflation eased in 2024
In 2024, food inflation remained at low level, and it is estimated at about 1 percent in December 2024, gradually decreasing from all time high of 21 percent registered in February 2023. The slowdown in inflation is principally due to the steady decline of fruits and vegetables prices.