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Mongolia

Mongolia: Forecast-based financing to avoid disaster displacement

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1. Context

Over the last twenty years, Mongolia has witnessed significant rural to urban migration, as nomadic herders seek alternatives to their traditional livelihoods as they become increasingly difficult to sustain due to the impacts of climate change combined with intensified livestock production and diminishing pasture for grazing.1 In particular, herders struggle to prepare for sequential “dzuds,” a natural hazard common in Central and East Asia that results from summer drought followed by extreme winter temperatures accompanied by heavy snowfall and strong winds. The lack of water in the summer makes it difficult for herders to store fodder to help their livestock survive freezing winter conditions. For example, following three consecutive dzuds between 1999 and 2002, Mongolian herders lost a combined 25 per cent of the nation’s livestock, with some 11 million animals dying because of bitterly cold temperatures.2 Ultimately, at least 12,000 families lost the totality of their herds, with thousands of others falling into poverty.3

Disaster displacement related to slow- onset hazards is often a gradual, multi- causal process of impoverishment and dispossession.4 Consequently, it can be difficult to distinguish displaced herders’ specific vulnerabilities and needs from those of the larger urban poor seeking better employment or educational opportunities.5 The Mongolian National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and IOM are using the Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) to develop a baseline study on displacement in Mongolia associated with climate change and disasters to inform future emergency response efforts.6

With insufficient or no livestock to sustain them, most internally displaced herders have no option other than to leave behind the countryside to live in impoverished, informal tent settlements on the outskirts of urban areas. Many of these IDPs lack the necessary national identity cards that allow them to access essential government educational and health services. Displaced children also face anxiety and fear associated with being forced to leave their homes.7 In addition to addressing these protection and assistance needs, aid agencies are helping displaced herders in urban areas to diversify their livelihood options.8

Enhanced climate change and DRR activities are also seeking to build the resilience of herders, which can contribute to reducing the risk of future displacement. In 2019, the Government of Mongolia received USD 3 million from the UNFCCC Green Climate Fund to implement a three-year climate change adaptation project encompassing animal husbandry and arable farming.9 The Mongolian Red Cross Society helps vulnerable herders through projects that build shelters for animals, encourage the stockpiling of hay and feed for the winter, and support the development of alternative income streams, such as the production of dairy and leather products.10 Over recent years, herder collectives , known as “pasture user groups,” have also been pooling their resources11 to strengthen their capacity to adapt to changing climatic conditions that are expected to intensify in the future.12