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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Area planted with 2025 wheat crop estimated at average level
- Below-average wheat output obtained in 2024
- Wheat import requirements in 2024/25 forecast well above average
- Prices of beef and mutton meat at near-record levels in May 2025
Area planted with 2025 wheat crop estimated at average level
Planting of the 2025 wheat crop, to be harvested in September, finalized last May and the area planted is officially estimated at an average of 370 000 hectares. Precipitation amounts were generally average to above‑average between April and June 2025, supporting crop establishment and early development. Remote sensing data from mid-June 2025 indicated favourable vegetation conditions across most cropping areas (ASI map).
Below‑average wheat output obtained in 2024
Harvesting of the 2024 wheat crop, mostly irrigated, finalized last September and production is officially estimated at 397 000 tonnes, about 10 percent below the previous five-year average. The low output mostly reflects a contraction in sowings, as several farmers opted to grow more profitable vegetables and other crops, including barley and oats. The 2024 output of potatoes, barley and oats is officially estimated well above average, reflecting large sowings driven by the strong local demand and remunerative domestic prices. Production of vegetables is officially estimated at a record 282 300 tonnes.
Wheat import requirements in 2024/25 forecast well above average
Cereal imports consist mostly of wheat plus small quantities of rice. Wheat import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (October/September) are forecast at well above average level of 150 000 tonnes, due to the low domestic production in 2024 and the strong demand for high-quality wheat for human consumption. On 1 May 2024, the government removed the 15 percent import duty on wheat flour, boosting imports by the private sector which improved market supply and lowered domestic prices. For the 2025 calendar year, imports of rice, which is not produced domestically, are forecast at above average 50 000 tonnes, reflecting increasing domestic consumption.
Prices of beef and mutton meat at near‑record levels in May 2025
Retail prices of beef and mutton meat, both key staple foods, have consistently increased since November 2024 and, as of May 2025, they were at near‑record levels, ranging between 5 and 20 percent above the already high levels of one year before. Price increases reflect seasonal patterns, but they were amplified by the reduced availability of livestock products in markets due to significant livestock losses caused by the 2023/24 dzud event. Strong demand of meat from China (mainland), the country’s main importer, also supported domestic prices.
Retail prices of wheat flour, another key staple food, declined sharply between August 2024 and January 2025, with the commercialization of the 2024 harvest and declining international wheat grain quotations. Although wheat flour prices have increased seasonally since March 2025, as of May 2025, they remained about 10 percent lower than the high levels a year earlier.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .
FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .
FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .