Mongolia

GIEWS Country Brief: Mongolia 03-October-2018

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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  • Above-average cereal production gathered in 2018

  • Cereal import requirements in 2018/19 forecast at average level

  • Harsh winter caused severe livestock losses at localized level

  • Prices of beef and mutton decrease seasonally in August

Above-average cereal production gathered in 2018

Harvesting of the 2018 cereal crops, mostly wheat, was completed at the end of September.

Latest official estimates put the 2018 wheat output at 426 000 tonnes, a significant increase compared to the drought-reduced level of 2017 and 21 percent higher than the five year-average. The bumper output in 2018 is the result of above-average plantings, sustained by strong local demand and above-average yields, following well-distributed rains both temporally and spatially during the cropping season. The wheat crop is essentially produced by large-scale farms operating either through cooperatives, companies or as a household activity.

The 2018 output of other crops, including potatoes, barley, oats and buckwheat, is also estimated at well above-average levels, supported by beneficial weather conditions.

Cereal import requirements in 2018/19 forecast at average level

Wheat and rice are the two main imported cereals, mostly purchased from the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan. Cereal import requirements in the 2018/19 marketing year (October/September) are forecast at 154 000 tonnes, a strong decrease from the previous year’s unusual high level and a return to average level, reflecting ample supplies from the 2018 bumper output. Imports of rice in 2018, which is not produced domestically, are anticipated to remain close to the previous year’s near-average level of 25 000 tonnes.

Harsh winter caused severe livestock losses at localized level

According to official estimates, as of June 2018, nearly 2.2 million livestock was lost, mostly due to the extreme cold weather conditions during the winter and spring months. The overall death toll accounts for about 4 percent of the total livestock population and falls under the country’s normal mortality rate. The aimags which recorded the highest losses were Bayankhongor, Uvurkhangai, Arkhangai, Zavkhan, Khovd, Tuv, Gobi-Altai and Khentii. Herder households who lost large numbers of their livestock faced a reduction of income, with ensuing constraints to access food and non-food items.

Prices of beef and mutton meat decreased seasonally in August

Prices of beef and mutton meat decreased seasonally in August, reflecting improved market availabilities due to increased livestock sales ahead of the winter. Overall, beef and mutton prices were generally higher than their year earlier levels. They registered sharp seasonal increases since the beginning of the year, mostly reflecting increased livestock losses during the winter and spring months. Prices of meat are usually at their lowest levels during October-December and at their highest levels between May and July.

Prices of wheat flour have remained stable in recent months and, in August 2018, they were close to their year-earlier levels, reflecting adequate market availabilities.

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