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Moldova + 1 more

Understanding Social Tensions in Moldova: a Household Survey

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1. Introduction

The war of Russia against Ukraine has had a significant impact on Moldova, resulting in serious humanitarian, energy and security challenges. Consequent surge in food and energy prices increased the cost of living in Moldova. In addition, perceived and/or real threats to its national security emanating from the left bank of the Nistru river and the fear of separatist movements in other parts of the country, especially in the initial months of the invasion, has added to a growing sense of insecurity. Russia’s aggression has also amplified political divisions in Moldova, primarily leveraged through pro-Russian political actors.

Despite a history of geopolitical divisions, Moldova has made significant strides towards European integration in recent years, including electing the pro-western Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) in 2021 and submitting an application for EU membership in 2022. At the same time, geopolitical polarisation in the country persists, with almost a third of the population (31.6%) in 2023 not supporting the accession process and 40.4% believing that Russia helped Moldova in strengthening its security and defence capabilities.

The arrival of an estimated 123,000 Ukrainians (as of September 8, 2024) made Moldova a country with the highest number of refugees per capita in Europe. This unprecedented influx has put heavy pressures on both the Moldovan society and the government of Moldova. While the help of external partners, actions of authorities and voluntary involvement of ordinary citizens alleviated the refugee crisis, a concerning trend has emerged in the form of rising tensions between refugees and the local population. These tensions primarily stem from the impoverishment of the host population, compounded by perceptions of an unequal distribution of available assistance, which are often manipulated by political actors.

Altogether, these factors contributed to the increase and maintenance of existing divisions and adversarial tendencies in the Moldovan society. Against this challenging backdrop, monitoring the dynamics of social tensions and finding pathways to alleviate them becomes crucial. These two objectives led to the development of the Social Tensions Monitoring Mechanism (STMM), a collection of research tools aimed at spotting contentious and anti-systemic potential in a society, as well as identifying entry points to mitigate it.