Mission Highlights
- Moldova's 2007 drought has been the most severe in living memory; however, it represents the extreme manifestation of a trend to drier weather conditions, which started in the early 1990s.
- Aggregate cereal production is down by 63 percent compared to last year, and about 70 percent lower than the average of the past five years. Wheat output is estimated at 464 000 tonnes, maize at 276 000 tonnes, and barley at 86 000 tonnes.
- Reduced yields in winter crops (mostly wheat and barley down by 40 percent and 55 percent, respectively) and summer crops (sunflower, maize, grapes, etc.) affected overall production and drastically reduced returns on leased land and on labour to the majority of small holders, who usually receive in-kind payments of wheat, corn, oil. Household production from home gardens, a mainstay of food supply for most rural families (70 percent of population) was also down sharply.
- Lack of pasture/fodder and the need to purchase increasingly expensive food have forced the majority of households to sell a substantial share of their livestock, notably cattle, but also pigs and sheep.
- The share of total lending going to the agricultural sector is relatively small, but small farmer associations and limited liability companies had borrowed from banks, Savings and Loans Associations, and from agricultural input suppliers. Debt outstanding is on the order of US$30.5 million for small farms and associations, and over US$100 million for Enterprises and Corporations. Unless loans are re-scheduled a failed cropping season may be followed by a delayed or sharply curtailed one.
- Since 2001, Moldova has had a growing deficit in live animals and animal products (the net trade deficit being about US$40 million in 2005). In the last ten years the net trade in cereals has been positive except in 2003, when the country was struck by the preceding drought (nearly US$10 million in net import value).
- To maintain the national food balance, commercial wheat imports, including for emergency stock build-up, are expected to reach about 237 000 tonnes. With greater damage to summer crops, and in spite of the reduction of the national livestock herd, maize imports are likely to be much higher, perhaps as much as 500 000 tonnes. Some of this will be for human consumption, but most of the maize imports will be for livestock feed. Even with adequate overall supply, food prices will remain high or rise further. With already stressed household budgets, food access is likely to decrease for the poorer part of the population.
- Urgent measures to be taken include the provision of agricultural inputs for October planting, subsidies for livestock feed, in order to prevent any further de-stocking, relief on land taxes and essential food import duties, and stepping up social assistance programs; the latter could include allowances to vulnerable groups, expanded school canteen programs and cash for public work programs. Given the prevalence of anaemia, imported wheat should be fortified.
- Medium-term measures should include a rebuilding of the national herd, improved seed production and multiplication, appropriate crop mix and water resources for home gardens, and an upgrade in food security monitoring and early warning tools/systems.
- Longer-term measures include a more sustainable strategy for the agricultural sector, greater and less expensive access to credit, and to agricultural insurance, including weather-indexed risk management instruments.
1. OVERVIEW
In response to a request by the president of the Republic of Moldova to the UN Secretary-General and to the Director-General of FAO, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) visited Moldova between 13 and 22 August 2007. The Mission was requested to assess the impact of the drought on the agricultural and livestock sectors as well as the population at large. In addition, the Mission was tasked to devise immediate and medium-term rehabilitation measures to mitigate the impact of drought. Officials from the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industries (MAFI) accompanied the Mission and a representative from the European Union (EU) participated as an observer.
The Mission held extensive discussions with various relevant Government institutions, in particular the staff of MAFI, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Ministry of Economy and Trade, the Ministry of Social Protection, the Department of Agro-meteorology and the National Task Force for Drought headed by the Deputy Prime Minister. In addition, the Mission held extensive consultation with all UN and other international and bilateral organizations, including the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Union (EU), UNDP, UNHCR, UNICEF and USAID among others. Two highly successful andimportant national NGOs deserve specific mention for assisting the Mission in its findings, the National Agency for Rural Development (ACSA) and the National Farmer's Association.
Following initial briefing in the capital, the Mission split into two teams to cover as many Raions (Districts) as possible in the limited time available. The Mission visited at least 4 Raions in each of the three regions of the country, the North, South and Centre. Discussions were also held with deputy Mayors from each of the 32 Raions, who happened to gather in one of the central Raions to discuss this year's drought and its impact with the Minister of Agriculture and Food Industries. MAFI staff in each one of the Raions annually prepare a three-stage crop forecast for all major crops. Their methodology for crop forecasting and estimation was reviewed in all the Raions visited. Though methodologically questionable, the overall forecasting was found to be sound and in line with crop estimates made by other agencies and the Mission spot-checks using Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) methods.
The Mission visited a number of Raion markets and held extensive discussions with large and small farmers throughout the field visits. Preliminary Mission findings were presented to the Government and the international community present in the country, before the Mission left the country.
The drought this year is compared with 1946, the worst drought in living memory when many Moldovans starved to death. The Mission witnessed that many lakes and rivers, usually full to capacity at this time of the year, were dry and water table in some areas had receded by almost two meters. Precipitation since early March has been less than 40 percent of the Long Term Average (LTA) throughout the country, except 3 Raions in the North. Not only was the monthly average precipitation far below the LTA but the rainfall frequency was also highly volatile. Irregular and far below average precipitation proved devastating for both winter and summer crops.
Cereal production this year is the lowest in the past decade. Aggregate cereal production is down by 63 percent compared with 2006, and 70 percent down on the average production of the past five years. This aggregate includes some 464 000 tonnes of wheat, 86 000 tonnes of barley and 276 000 tonnes of maize. Other important crops include vineyards, sunflower, sugar beet, fruits and vegetables.