Moldova

GIEWS Country Brief: Republic of Moldova 22-October-2021

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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  • Above‑average cereal production forecast in 2021

  • Total cereal exports in 2021/22 forecast above average

  • Local economy gradually recovering after‑effects of COVID‑19 pandemic and 2020 drought

Above‑average cereal production forecast in 2021

Harvesting of the 2021 winter cereal crops, mainly wheat, finalized in August. The wheat output is set at about 1.6 million tonnes, almost three times above the previous year's level and over 40 percent above the five‑year average, following favourable weather conditions during the season which boosted yields compared to the 2020 drought‑reduced levels.

Harvesting of maize (a spring crop), is ongoing under overall favourable weather conditions and the output is forecast at about 2 million tonnes, well above the 2020 production and the average level due to near‑average rainfall amounts and temperatures during the season that are expected to result in high yields.

Harvesting of other spring cereals, mainly barley, finished in September, and the output is estimated at a near‑average level.

The total 2021 cereal output is projected at about 4 million tonnes, 38 percent above the average level.

Planting of the 2022 winter cereals is ongoing under overall favourable weather conditions and crops will be harvested from July next year.

Total cereal exports in 2021/22 forecast above average

Total cereal exports in the 2021/22 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 1.7 million tonnes, well above the five‑year average volume.

Due to expectations of large harvests in 2021, wheat and maize exports are officially forecast both at 800 000 tonnes, well above the average volumes.

Local economy gradually recovering

The negative effects of the COVID‑19 pandemic that resulted in losses of jobs, incomes and remittances, coupled with the effects of the 2020 drought on the agricultural output obtained last year, had severely affected the economy, particularly the sectors of trade, agriculture and tourism. It is estimated that the Gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 7 percent in 2020. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the GDP is forecast to increase by 4.5 percent in 2021 due to the gradual recovery of most economic sectors. However, the economic growth may be slowed down by recent uncertainties around the procurement of natural gas in the country and the increase of fuel prices.

On 2 June 2021, an Economic Recovery Plan was launched by the European Commission and will mobilize about EUR 600 million (about USD 700 million) between 2021 and 2024 in macro‑financial assistance, grants and investments to stimulate long‑term socio‑economic recovery in the country.